Wheat

With wheat barely a foot tall, the flag leaf is already emerging—a sign the crop is rushing to reproduce under stress, leaving too little structure to support a harvest. Less than 10% may be harvested in West Texas.

USDA’s March 2026 Prospective Plantings report produced no major surprises, but the bigger story may be the fact only 37.6% of farmers responded, the lowest participation in history for that survey.

Traders are positioning ahead of Tuesday’s USDA data on planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks

Crop rotations lead to lower corn and higher soybean acres than thought, but worries over input costs could lead to later-than-normal decisions.

The situation in Iran drove fertilizer prices higher this week while raising shortage fears. Analysts warn higher input costs could shift up to 1 million 1.5 million acres from corn to soybeans this spring.

After years of steady growth, the U.S. agricultural land market is shifting and stabilizing.

Wheat acres are expected to decline, and little change is anticipated for cotton acres after a drop in 2025.

Going into the final weeks of the year, many growers across the country are shouldering significant financial strain from land rent payments, rising input costs, and efforts to stay in business and viable until commodity prices improve.