This season’s warmer and drier weather in winter wheat areas, along with lower acreage, could mean a much smaller hard red winter wheat harvest this year, according to wheat experts.
Poor crop conditions in parts of Texas and Oklahoma are well known, with half of each state’s wheat rating very poor to poor in the weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture crop progress report as of April 19.
But conditions are deteriorating quickly in Kansas, the top-producing hard red winter wheat state, as evidenced by a sharp drop in wheat rated good-to-excellent, says Gregg Ibendahl, associate professor at Kansas State University.
“When you factor lower yields and lower wheat acres, we’re looking at probably at least a third drop in our total production here,” he says.
His model considers crop condition, potential harvested acres and yield. It is predicting a Kansas yield of 39.4 bushels per acre, a 4.8 bushel drop from the 44.2 bushel trendline, and harvest at 240 million bushels for 2026. That would be a 31% decline from last year.
USDA’s weekly crop conditions rated just 24% of the Kansas wheat crop good-to-excellent as of April 19, down from 32% a week earlier and 62% on Nov. 23 in the final report of 2025.
Early dormancy break means vulnerability
Forecasting final wheat yields early is difficult because wheat can quickly improve with some rains, Ibbendahl says, but he’s concerned that the crop’s development is far ahead of normal for this time of year. This year’s warmer and drier winter weather caused the crop to break dormancy and develop ahead of schedule. Monday’s crop progress report showed 15% of Kansas’ wheat was headed versus 2% for the five-year average. Nebraska and Oklahoma wheat was also far ahead in its development compared to the recent average.
“Anytime you break that early, to me, that’s a sign that something’s going on…. I don’t look at that as a good thing for yields,” he says.
Since Feb. 27, July hard red winter wheat futures gained 69 1/2 cents through Wednesday’s close, finding support on a combination of a war premium tied to the conflict with Iran and, more recently, growing concerns over the condition of the crop. July soft red winter wheat futures have gained 15 1/2 cents over the same stretch, with the smaller rally reflecting better conditions in key growing areas. See: Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index shows signs of stress in wheat
Low returns have contributed to a fall in wheat acres. In USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report, the agency said U.S. wheat acres are at their smallest since 1919.
Warm winter
Mike Tannura, chief meteorologist and agricultural economist at T-Storm Weather, says between September and April, temperatures in the Plains were the warmest in more than 130 years. T-Storm Weather’s data going back 14 years also show the HRW wheat areas had less than one-quarter of normal rainfall over the last 60 days.
Eric Hunt, assistant extension educator of agriculture, meteorology and climate resilience at University of Nebraska, Lincoln, concurred. Already in late March areas of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle saw temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, and in the low 90s across portions of Nebraska. Forty-five percent of the state’s wheat is in very poor to poor condition, but it’s not all dire in Nebraska—yet, he says.
“My understanding is the wheat looks better than you think, at least in portions of western Nebraska, but it needs moisture very soon,” Hunt says.
Rain chances in the Plains improve next week, Tannura says. Wheat can bounce back with some moisture, but at this stage some yield loss is inevitable.
Critical period ahead
Amanda De Oliveira Silva, associate professor at Oklahoma State University, spoke to Pro Farmer while field scouting. On Monday, she had just visited a field in Walters, in southwest Oklahoma, where she estimated yield potential between 15 to 20 bushels an acre in an area that normally produces about 30 bushels. That area may be better off than some southwest Oklahoma wheat fields, which received little moisture during planting and weren’t well established in the fall, she says, and those fields are already zeroed out.
Other fields that received modest rain are producing thin, short crops, she says, which are likely to be low yielding, but could still benefit from timely rains. In addition to heat stress, western Oklahoma battled army worms, grasshoppers and mites in the fall. Western areas and the panhandle fields are in poor shape, but she hopes that as she drives to south central and northern Oklahoma, crops will be in better shape.
The next four to five weeks are critical for crop development in the Plains as it heads into the final growing stages, says Jim Roemer, a commodity trading advisor, meteorologist and publisher of Weather Wealth newsletter. Despite a few showers that could come next week, he doesn’t see this drought breaking.
Although an El Nino weather phenomenon is forecast to develop later this year, a weak La Nina is lingering. La Nina, along with other weather patterns, is keeping the Plains drier during the transition to El Nino. Roemer’s forecast for May is for some rain, but nothing substantial until June, which is the opposite of what Plains wheat farmers need as they harvest.
“If we stay dry on average in May and we have a wet June, that could be a double whammy for the wheat crop,” he says.