The weekly crop progress and condition reporting season is now well underway. With multiple weeks of data to work with, Pro Farmer is starting the Crop Condition Index (CCI) for the year. The CCI re-weights USDA’s initial ratings based on historical production for the last three years at the state level. This measure attempts to more accurately reflect the impact on total crop production than a straight weighting of the values. For the percentage of crops not included in state ratings, the model assumes similar conditions as in the major production states.
The winter wheat crop continues it’s rough start to the year, especially HRW. Conditions continued to deteriorate on the Plains states with the cold front that brought on freezing temperatures as far south as the Oklahoma panhandle piling on to the already drought stricken crop. USDA rated the winter wheat crop as 30% “good” to “excellent” and 33% “poor” to “very poor.” Good to excellent ratings came in below the average analyst estimate of 33%.
On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 10.8 points to 270.81, and is well below the condition ratings for this time last year.
The SRW crop is faring better but still declined 5.44 points to 360.64. The more northern growing regions of Illinois and Ohio are in better shape compared to the drier states in the Southeast.
Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index for HRW Wheat | |||
This week | Last week | Last year | |
Kansas (39.35%*) | 106.25 | 121.99 | 133.01 |
Oklahoma (13.12%) | 33.19 | 31.88 | 47.88 |
Texas (11.2%) | 46.35 | 27.32 | 36.28 |
Colorado (9.49%) | 24.21 | 23.45 | 31.42 |
Nebraska (5.64%) | 14.22 | 15.06 | 20.98 |
S. Dakota (5.10%) | 15.76 | 15.25 | 18.05 |
Montana (12.73%) | 41.77 | 37.18 | 45.97 |
HRW U.S. total | 270.81 | 281.61 | 345.22 |
* denotes percentage of three-year average of total national HRW crop production.
Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index for SRW Wheat | |||
| This week | Last week | Last year | |
| Missouri (10.05%*) | 38.08 | 35.47 | 36.06 |
| Illinois (16.54%) | 58.73 | 62.37 | 60.07 |
| Ohio (12.13%) | 45.49 | 44.64 | 53.92 |
| Arkansas (1.58%) | 5.24 | 5.46 | 8.93 |
| Indiana (6.42%) | 24.06 | 23.80 | 28.59 |
| N. Carolina (5.50%) | 18.52 | 20.28 | 29.13 |
| Michigan (10.75%) | 40.63 | 38.48 | 53.38 |
| SRW U.S. total | 360.64 | 366.08 | 373.45 |
* denotes percentage of three-year average of total national SRW crop production.