USDA's new-crop ending stocks forecasts for soybeans and wheat came in much higher than expected. The wheat crop estimate was also bigger than anticipated.
Sept. 1 corn stocks came in 135 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. The wheat production estimate was 128 million bu. lower than traders anticipated.
USDA unexpectedly estimates farmers intend to plant more acres to soybeans than corn in 2022. March 1 stocks were slightly lower than expected, while soybean stocks came in higher than anticipated.
USDA reflected no expected increase in U.S. wheat exports, despite the Russia/Ukraine conflict. U.S. corn exports were increased to reflect fewer anticipated shipments from Ukraine.
The wheat market had the biggest reaction to the data as winter wheat seedings topped expectations, while U.S. and global wheat ending stocks increased from last month.
The USDA increased U.S. and global wheat and corn carryout numbers above pre-report estimates. Meanwhile, U.S. and global cotton and soybean carryout numbers were under pre-report estimates.
Your editors break down USDA's September Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports — data that has a history of sparking some big market moves.