Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading near around a nickel lower, soybeans were around 15 cents lower, wheat futures were down 3 to 7 cents and cotton was around 40 points higher.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading around 9 cents lower, soybeans are around 20 cents higher, wheat is around 8 cents lower and cotton is around 125 points higher.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 16.742 billion bu.; trade expected 15.990 billion bu.— compares to 15.705 billion bu. projected in July; 14.867 billion bu. in 2024.
Beans: 4.292 billion bu.; trade expected 4.368 billion bu.— compares to 4.335 billion bu. projected in July; 4.367 billion bu. in 2024.
Cotton: 13.214 million bales; trade expected 14.55 million bales— compares to 14.6 million bales projected in July; 14.413 million bales in 2024.
All wheat: 1.927 billion bu.; trade expected 1.922 billion bu.— compares with 1.929 billion bu. in July; 1.812 billion bu. in 2024.
All winter wheat: 1.355 billion bu.; trade expected 1.344 billion bu.— compares with 1.345 billion bu. in July; 1.349 billion bu. in 2024.
HRW: 769 million bu.; trade expected 756 million bu.— compares with 755 million bu. in July; 770 million bu. in 2024.
SRW: 339 million bu.; trade expected 337 million bu.— compares with 337 million bu. in July; 342 million bu. in 2024.
White winter: 247 million bu.; trade expected 252 million bu.— compares with 254 million bu. in July; 236 million bu. in 2024.
Other spring wheat: 484 million bu.; trade expected 497 million bu.— compares with 504 million bu. in July; 542 million bu. in 2024.
Durum wheat: 87 million bu.; trade expected 80 million bu.— compares with 80 million bu. in July; 80 million bu. in 2024.
USDA’s first production estimate increased 1.037 billion bu. from July and was 752 million bu. bigger than analysts expected. Yield is forecast at a record high 188.8 bushels per acre, up 9.5 bushels from last year’s 179.3 bushels and 7.8 bushels above trend. Using FSA certified acres, NASS forecast planted acres at 97.3 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous estimate and up 7 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.7 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from the previous year.
Across the Corn belt, yields are estimated at 221 bu. per acre in Illinois, 205 bu. in Indiana, 222 bu. in Iowa, 139 bu. in Kansas, 180 bu. in Michigan, 202 bu. in Minnesota, 191 bu. in Missouri, 192 bu. in Nebraska, 148 bu. in North Dakota, 196 bu. in Ohio, 168 bu. in South Dakota and 185 bu. in Wisconsin.
USDA’s first soybean estimate decreased 43 million bu. from July and was 76 million bu. less than analysts expected. Yields are expected to average a record high 53.6 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels from 2024. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 7 percent from 2024.
USDA estimated soybean yields at 65 bu. per acre in Illinois, 62 bu. in Indiana, 63 bu. in Iowa, 36 bu. in Kansas, 52 bu. in Michigan, 53 bu. in Minnesota, 53 bu. in Missouri, 57 bu. in Nebraska, 36 bu. in North Dakota, 57 bu. in Ohio, 47 bu. in South Dakota and 53 bu. in Wisconsin.
USDA lowered its all wheat production forecast 2 million bu. from July. Winter wheat production increased 10 million bu., with HRW up 14 million bu., SRW up 2 million bu. and white winter down 7 million bu. USDA cut the other spring wheat estimate 20 million bu. from July but increased expected durum production 7 million bu. USDA raised their wheat yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 52.7 bu. and left harvested acres unchanged at 36.6 million.
USDA slashed their cotton production estimate 1.386 million bales from the July projection. Traders expected a modest production cut. USDA estimates the yield at 840 lbs. per acre, up from 862 lbs. last month. Harvested acres was reduced 1.3 million acres, largely due to reduced plantings as found in FSA certified acres, as plantings are now estimated at 9.277 million acres.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.305 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 1.340 billion bu. in July— 2.117 billion bu. for 2025-26, up from 1.660 billion bu. in July
Beans: 330 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 350 million bu. in July— 290 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 310 million bu. in July
Wheat: 869 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 890 million bu. in July
Cotton: 4.0 million bales for 2024-25, down from 4.1 million bales in July— 3.6 million bales for 2025-26, down sharply from 4.6 million bales in July
USDA cut 35 million bushels from the 2024-25 corn carryover estimate from last month and the estimate is 16 million bushels below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change on the supply side of the old-crop balance sheet. Total old-crop demand is estimated at 15.350 billion bu., up 35 million bu. from last month. USDA left feed & residual use at 5.675 billion bushels, cut food, seed & industrial use 35 million bu. (to 6.855 billion bu.; corn-for-ethanol use cut 30 million bu. to 5.47 billion) and increased estimated exports 70 million bu. (to 2.82 billion). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash price for 2024-25 at $4.30, unchanged from last month.
USDA increased new-crop carryover 457 million bu. from last month and is 199 million bushels above the average pre-report trade estimate. The decline in beginning stocks was overshadowed by a 1.037-billion-bu. increase in the crop estimate from last month. Total supplies compared to last month are up 1.002 billion bushels. On the demand side, USDA increased total new-crop demand 545 million bu. from last month. Feed & residual use is up 250 million bu. (to 6.1 billion), FSI is up 95 million bu. (to 6.98 billion; corn-for-ethanol use is 5.6 billion bu., up 100 million bu. from July) and exports are estimated at 2.875 billion bu., up 200 million bu. from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $3.90, down 30 cents from July.
USDA cut 20 million bu. from the 2024-25 soybean carryover estimate from last month and the estimate is 15 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change on the old-crop supplies. USDA increased estimated old-crop bean crush 10 million bu. (to 2.43 billion) and increased estimated old-crop bean exports 10 million bu. (to 1.875 billion). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $10.00, unchanged with last month.
USDA cut 20 million bu. from the 2025-26 soybean carryover estimate from last month and the estimate is 68 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total new-crop supplies were sliced 63 million bu. from last month with beginning stocks down 20 million bu. and the crop estimate down 43 million bu. from July. (USDA increased the national average bean yield, but cut estimated harvested acres from last month.) On the demand side, USDA cut total use 43 million bu. from last month with crush steady at 2.54 billion bu., exports down 40 million bu. (to 1.705 billion) and residual use down 3 million bu. (to 34 million). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price at $10.10, steady with July.
USDA puts the 2025-26 wheat carryover at 869 million bu., down 21 million bu. from last month and 13 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are down 1 million bu. on a slight adjustment to the all-wheat crop estimate from last month. Food use is estimated down 5 million bu. from last month (to 972 million), but export demand was raised 25 million bu. (to 875 million). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $5.30, down a dime from last month.
USDA cut 100,000 bales from the 2024-25 cotton carryover. Supply was unchanged. USDA increased estimated export 100,000 bales (to 11.9 million) to account for the change. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 63 cents, steady with July.
USDA cut 1 million bales from the 2025-26 cotton carryover from last month. Total supplies are down 1.49 million bales from last month on a 1.39-million-bale cut to the crop estimate. Demand was reduced 500,000 bales – the entire cut came from exports that are now estimated at 12.0 million bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 64 cents, up 2 cents from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 283.11 MMT for 2024-25, down from 284.18 MMT in July— 282.54 MMT for 2025-26, up from 272.08 MMT in July
Beans: 125.19 MMT for 2024-25, up from 125.12 MMT in July— 124.90 MMT for 2025-26, down from 126.07 MMT in July
Wheat: 262.70 MMT for 2024-25, down from 263.59 MMT in July— 260.08 MMT for 2025-26, down from 261.52 MMT in July
Cotton: 75.05 million bales for 2024-25, down from 76.78 million bales in July— 73.91 million bales for 2025-26, down from 77.32 million bales in July
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 49.9 MMT in July— 48.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 48.5 MMT in July
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in July— 175.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 175.0 MMT in July
Argentina wheat: 18.54 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.54 MMT in July— 19.70 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 20.0 MMT in July
Australia wheat: 34.11 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.11 MMT in July— 31.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 31.0 MMT in July
China wheat: 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in July— 140.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 142.0 MMT in July
Canada wheat: 34.96 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.96 MMT in July— 35.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 35.0 MMT in July
EU wheat: 122.12 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 122.12 MMT in July— 138.25 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 137.25 MMT in July
Russia wheat: 81.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.6 MMT in July— 83.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 83.5 MMT in July
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 23.4 MMT in July— 22.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 22.0 MMT in July
China corn: 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 294.92 MMT in July— 295.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 295.0 MMT in July
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.0 MMT in July— 53.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 53.0 MMT in July
Brazil corn: 132.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 132.0 MMT in July— 131.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 131.0 MMT in July
Ukraine corn: 26.8 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.8 MMT in July— 32.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 30.5 MMT in July
South Africa corn: 15.75 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 15.75 MMT in July— 16.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 16.5 MMT in July
China cotton: 32.0 mil. bales for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 mil. bales in July— 31.50 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 31.0 mil. bales in July