Good morning!
Please be advised of the following holiday schedule:
- Markets were closed Thursday for Christmas.
- Reports: We will observe an abbreviated schedule, publishing First Thing Today (8:00 a.m. CT) and After the Bell (after the close). We will resume our regular publishing schedule on Monday, Dec. 29.
No grain futures trade overnight… There was no overnight grain futures trading due to the Christmas holiday Thursday. Look for quieter trading action in the grain and livestock futures markets again today, as many traders will extend the holiday into the weekend. Grains and livestock futures markets will trade normal daytime hours today. Wheat has taken over daily price action leadership in the grain futures markets. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady today and trading around $58.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.12 percent.
Warm in the Plains, Midwest before the big chill arrives Sunday… The National Weather Service today said the upper Midwest will see a swath of snow and ice spreading this morning, ahead of a clipper system that is pushing against a high-pressure system in eastern Canada feeding the cold air. Light to moderate snowfall is expected across the upper Great Lakes from this system, while areas from lower Michigan to Pennsylvania can expect to receive up to a quarter- inch of freezing rain today into tonight, with locally higher amounts. Meanwhile, anomalous warmth will be the rule over the mid-section of the country. High temperatures in the upper 70s to the low 80s are predicted from Texas to the Tennessee Valley today and into the weekend, and as far east as the Carolinas on Saturday.Many cities could break or near record-warm high temperatures each day, with some records dating as far back as the 1880s. Low temperatures will also be warm in the upper 50s to low 60s. Other weather in the country worth monitoring will be the intermountain West as the West Coast trough and surface cold front move through this weekend. High elevation snow and gusty winds are likely in higher elevations. On Sunday an outbreak of arctic air will begin to funnel down into the U.S. behind an intensifying low-pressure system over the central Plains along the arctic front surging southward from Canada. By Sunday morning, temperatures near the Canadian border in the northern High Plains could dip below zero. Meanwhile, frigid wind chills under very windy conditions will be surging down toward the central Plains. After several days of deluge from heavy rainfall, California can expect to dry out this weekend as the last of a series of energetic low-pressure systems is forecast to move past the region.
U.S. strikes ISIS targets in Nigeria… The U.S. launched a military strike in Nigeria against Islamic State targets in a security and intelligence collaboration with the African nation’s government. President Trump said he directed American forces to carry out “a powerful and deadly strike” against ISIS, and Nigeria’s foreign affairs ministry confirmed the “precision hits on terrorist targets,” Bloomberg reported. The attack came “at the request of Nigerian authorities” and killed “multiple ISIS terrorists”, according to U.S. Africa Command, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatening “more to come” if the group does not stop going after “innocent Christians in Nigeria.”
Upbeat Zelenskiy to meet with Trump soon on peace deal… Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he plans to meet President Trump “in the coming days,” signaling optimism about reaching a peace deal to end Russia’s almost four-year war. Separately, the Kremlin said its representatives had made contact with the U.S. at President Putin’s direction. “A lot could be decided before the New Year,” Zelenskiy said today in a Telegram and X post after receiving an update from Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s top negotiator with the U.S. and head of the National Defense and Security Council, Bloomberg reported. Kyiv and Washington are seeking to align on a 20-point peace plan to present to Putin, including the provision of strong security guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5, and a global post-war development program for Ukraine. While the allies have agreed on most items, several issues remain unresolved, including Ukraine’s opposition to territorial concessions in the eastern region of Donetsk.
Gold, silver prices smash records again… Gold, silver and platinum prices jumped to all-time highs overnight, to extend a historic end-of-year rally for precious metals, with support from safe-haven buying amid escalating geopolitical tensions and recent U.S. dollar weakness. Spot gold rose as much as 1.2% to a peak above $4,530 an ounce. Frictions in Venezuela, where the U.S. has blockaded oil tankers and ramped up pressure on the government of Nicolás Maduro, have added to the precious metal’s haven appeal. Washington also launched a military strike against Islamic State in Nigeria in collaboration with the African nation’s government. Spot silver for immediate delivery advanced for a fifth session, climbing as much as 5% to cross $75 an ounce. Silver’s recent advance has been buoyed by speculative inflows and lingering supply dislocations across major trading hubs following a historic short squeeze in October.
Malaysian palm oil futures poised for weekly gains… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,060 per MT on Friday, extending gains for a fourth straight session as trade resumed after the Christmas break. Prices drew support from stronger rival edible oils on the Dalian exchange and firmer demand prospects from top buyer India, where November imports rose about 5% from October amid more attractive pricing. The contract is set to finish the week up around 4%, rebounding after two weeks of losses. The recovery was fueled by bargain-hunting after prices hit a 27-week low and briefly slipped below the psychological MYR 4,000 mark. Broader energy market strength also lent support, with crude oil heading for a weekly gain on persistent geopolitical risks, enhancing palm oil’s appeal as a biofuel feedstock. Still, upside was capped by mixed export signals: Intertek Testing Services noted shipments rose 2.4% month-on-month in December 1–20, while AmSpec Agri Malaysia reported a 0.87% decline, underscoring uncertainty over near-term momentum.
Cattle futures see chart consolidation, profit taking… February live cattle futures on Wednesday fell $1.275 to $228.725. January feeder cattle rose 30 cents to $344.925. The live and feeder cattle futures this week have seen consolidation amid light, holiday-thinned cash and futures activity after both markets hit two-month highs Monday. The live and feeder cattle futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. USDA Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trading so far this week, at $228.80. USDA reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $227.97, which was down 22 cents from the prior week’s average.
Lean hog futures also see some profit taking… February lean-hog futures Wednesday fell 90 cents to end at $89.075, pulling back on profit-taking after hitting a two-month high on Tuesday. A bearish lean on Tuesday afternoon’s USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report also limited buying interest in hog futures Wednesday. Recently rising cash hog prices and a bullish near-term chart posture for the futures market will likely continue to support buying interest in lean hog futures. The February futures contract is above the latest CME lean hog index, which is also bullish for futures.