There was no escaping the trade war in 2025. President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on April 2 unleashed volatility across global markets and set itself apart as Pro Farmer’s event of the year.
Retaliation, negotiations and turnarounds (remember the “TACO trade?”) remained key market drivers. The tariffs have generated significant revenues, which have helped to contain bond yields, defying expectations for a 2025 rise. Stocks rebounded from a historic post-Liberation Day selloff, with investor attention returning to artificial intelligence.
Market reverberations will continue, however. Among the issues, three lower federal courts ruled that the liberation day tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, exceeded presidential authority and were unlawful.
These decisions were appealed and consolidated before the U.S. Supreme Court, where arguments were heard in November. A ruling is expected in the next few weeks, possibly before year-end.
Trade remained front and center in the agricultural markets, particularly when it came to the fight between the U.S. and China – the world’s two largest economies, which is why the topic is Pro Farmer’s story of the year for 2025. China’s boycott of U.S. soybean purchases over the summer and well into the fall attracted intense, mainstream media attention. Google data shows that searches for “soybeans” hit levels unseen since it began tracking search traffic in 2004 (see chart below).
Searches for ‘soybeans’
While much of the national media coverage focused on the potential political fallout from the tariff battle, China’s boycott of U.S. soybean purchases was a realization of a fear that has grown over the decades over South America’s rise as an oilseed and grain producer and the dangers of overreliance on a single trade partner.
But it wasn’t all about China. In other trade-related news, the New World screwworm outbreak resulted in the closure of the southern U.S. border to Mexican feeders, helping to fuel a surge in cattle futures.
And then there was the political fallout from the tariffs. Rising concerns about affordability saw the Trump administration undo a number of levies this fall. Rising beef prices, in particular, drew Trump’s ire, resulting in an expansion of quotas on Argentine beef imports and the lifting of punitive tariffs on Brazil, contributing to a steep selloff in cattle prices from the mid-October highs.
A U.S.-China trade truce following a meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October saw China commit to renewed soybean purchases, which remain under way. Though a signed trade agreement remains to be seen, the administration has said China has committed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of February and 25 million MT in each of the following three calendar years. China appears on track to hit the 12 million MT target, though concerns remain over the potential for longer-term commitments to get derailed, particularly in the event of flare-ups over issues that appear to carry more weight with the administration, such as exports of China’s rare-earth minerals, China’s imports of advanced semiconductors and Taiwan or China’s presence in the Panama Canal.
It puts all the more emphasis on continuing to expand access to other foreign markets while leaning into a continued expansion of biofuels.