USDA estimated the U.S. hog herd at 75.5 million head as of Dec. 1, up 470,000 head (0.6%) from year-ago and 1.146 million head more than the average pre-report estimate. Market hog inventories increased 521,000 head (0.8%) while the breeding herd contracted 52,000 head (0.9%) from year-ago.
| Hogs & Pigs Report | USDA (% of year-ago) | Average estimate (% of year-ago) |
| All hogs on Dec1 | 100.6 | 99.1 |
| Kept for breeding | 99.1 | 99.1 |
| Marketed | 100.8 | 99.2 |
| Market hog inventory | ||
| under 50 lbs. | 101.0 | 98.7 |
| 50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 99.1 | 98.8 |
| 120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 100.6 | 99.0 |
| Over 180 lbs. | 102.8 | 100.2 |
| Pig crop (Sept-Nov) | 100.4 | 98.6 |
| Pigs per litter (Sept-Nov) | 100.0 | 100.8 |
| Farrowings (Sept-Nov) | 100.3 | 97.9 |
| Farrowing intentions (Dec-Feb) | 99.6 | 101.9 |
| Farrowing intentions (Mar-May) | 100.7 | 102.0 |
The fall pig crop increased 123,000 head from 2024, 0.4%. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.93 million head, up slightly from 2024. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.93 for the September-November period, compared to 11.92 last year.
USDA reviewed all inventory and pig crop estimates for December 2023 through September 2025 using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the September 2025 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.1 percent. A revision of 2.5 percent was made to the June-August 2025 pig crop. The net revision made to the June 2025 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.9 percent. A net revision of 1.9 percent was made to the March-May 2025 pig crop.
The data is negative compared to pre-report expectations as the market anticipated a contraction. Given the bearish tone priced into futures at this juncture, there may not be much of a price response, especially in the long-term.