Good morning!
Grain prices lower overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 3 1/4 cents, November soybeans were 3/4 cent lower and December winter wheat futures were 3 to 5 cents lower. Corn and soybeans are seeing price pressure after the first day of the Pro Farmer annual Crop Tour found record-large corn and soybean production potentials in South Dakota. Wheat prices are under pressure this morning from the weaker corn and soybean prices and on more chart-based selling from the speculators. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $62.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.332 percent.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts find record corn, soybean yield potentials in South Dakota, variable crops in Ohio… Monday’s first leg of the annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour saw adequate moisture in South Dakota, suggesting the potential for record corn and soybean crops. However, Ohio weather has turned drier, which could crimp yields. The results from Crop Tour, day one, showed the southern portion of South Dakota is poised for strong yields this year. The South Dakota corn yield tour estimate came in at 174.18 bu. per acre, an 11.3% increase from the 156.5 bu. per acre scouts found on the 2024 tour. The corn yield is also above the three-year average of 144. bu. per acre. Some of that yield came from higher ear counts that were up 7.6%. For soybeans, South Dakota pod counts came in at 1,188.45 in a 3’x3' square, which is 15.9% above last year’s tour and well above the three-year average of 970.1 pods. The number of pods in a 3' row increased 20% year-over-year, and the moisture picture saw major improvements compared to last year at this time. In Ohio, Pro Farmer scouts found a more variable corn crop, but one that still has solid yield potential in corn. The corn yield from this year’s Crop Tour came in at 185.7 bu. per acre, which beat last year by 1.3%. It’s also above the three-year average of 180.5 bu. per acre. Ear counts were actually down in Ohio compared to a year ago, but grain length was up 1.9%. For soybeans, the pod count in Ohio was even stronger, but moisture is a concern to finish the season. Scouts saw an average pod count of 1,287.3 in a 3' x 3' area, which is a 4.7% increase year-over-year. The moisture situation is drastically different in Ohio, with scouts reporting less moisture than they found last year, which means some of those pods may be at risk. Look for more daily updates from crop scouts and state results each evening at 8:00 p.m. CDT. Our final yields will be released this Friday at 1:30 p.m. CDT.
Latest weekly USDA crop progress reports… USDA Monday afternoon reported the condition of the 2025 U.S. corn crop declined 1%, to 71% rated good/excellent. Seven states reported the corn condition improved last week, while 10 indicated the corn condition declined. Most of the improvements were generally found in the western locations, while most of the declines were found in the eastern and southern locations. The condition of the 2025 U.S. soybean crop was unchanged at 68% rated good/excellent. Eight states reported the soybean condition improved last week, five indicated that the soybean condition declined last week, and five were unchanged.Most of the improvements were found in the western locations, while most of the declines were found in the eastern and southern locations. Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield estimate by 1.0 bushel this week, to 184.0 bu./ac. with a neutral to slightly higher bias. He also raised his U.S. soybean yield by 0.5 bushel, to 53.0 bu./ac. with a neutral to slightly higher bias.
Trump working on getting Putin, Zelenskiy to meet… President Trump called Russian President Putin Monday and urged him to begin making plans for a summit meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to be followed by a trilateral gathering involving all three. Trump said he may be able to convince Russia to release as many as 1,000 prisoners as a show of good faith. Zelenskiy told reporters in Washington, D.C. Monday that a bilateral gathering should not carry any conditions and that he would be willing to discuss territorial issues with Putin, and that he was pleased Trump had agreed to participate in security guarantees as part of any peace deal.
China’s central bank injects liquidity to stabilize bond market… China’s central bank Tuesday added a substantial amount of cash into its financial system, in a move that’s seen stabilizing bonds that have come under pressure from investors migrating into equities, Bloomberg reports. The People’s Bank of China added a net 465.7 billion yuan ($65 billion) of short-term cash via reverse repurchase agreements, the largest daily net injection since July 25 and also the third-biggest this year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year bond steadied after touching the highest level since April. Chinese Bonds have been hit hard in recent trading sessions as optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and Beijing’s measures to fight deflation prompted a rally in local stocks. Signs China’s central bank will hold back from aggressively easing its monetary policy and a tax on interest income on new bonds are also crimping Chinese demand for debt instruments.
Stock, financial markets quieter ahead of Jackson Hole Fed symposium later this week… It’s a quieter start to the trading week for the stock and financial markets. Traders and investors are awaiting the key Kansas City Federal Reserve annual Economic Policy Symposium that begins Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday is expected to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework at the confab. Powell’s speech could give the marketplace a new update on how much support there is to lower U.S. interest rates in September.
Brazil soybean traders under Brazilian government investigation… Brazil’s antitrust regulator will investigate 30 soybean traders and two industry associations, citing the possibility of a purchasing cartel in the grain-export market, according to Bloomberg. The investigation stems from a moratorium signed by the group that publicly commits them to avoiding soybeans from land deforested after 2008. The probe is directed at companies that comprise the so-called Soybean Working Group, the agency, Cade, announced on its website Monday. The group includes units of Cargill Inc., Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge Global SA. Cade said the purchasing cartel constitutes an “anti-competitive agreement between competitors that harms soybean exports.” Potential fines for the associations targeted could reach up to 2 billion reais ($368 million), and for the companies, it could be up to 20% of gross revenue from the last fiscal year.
India suspends import duties on cotton… TradingEconomics.com reports India has suspended import duties on cotton starting today and until September 30 in response to industry calls to support the garment sector’s competitiveness. Although the country is the world’s third-largest exporter of raw cotton—behind Brazil and the U.S., with USD 6.78 billion in export value in FY24—local textile makers often depend on imports of specific cotton varieties. The duty cut offers relief against a 50% U.S. tariff on Indian apparel, which combines a 25% existing levy with an additional 25% penalty tied to India’s Russian oil purchases. Cotton imports had previously carried an 11% duty. Industry officials said the duty-free window could be extended if pressures persist. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that some exporters are considering shifting part of their production offshore to cushion the impact of higher U.S. tariffs.
Malaysian palm oil futures extend price rally… Malaysian palm oil futures prices rose above MYR 4,600 per MT Tuesday, rallying for the third straight session and at their highest level since early March. Prices were supported by a weaker ringgit and stronger rival Dalian edible oils, alongside firmer exports, with cargo surveyors reporting shipments up 6.5% to 21.3% in the first half of August from a month earlier.
Cattle futures bulls keep their foot on the accelerator… Live cattle futures posted modest gains Monday, on follow-through strength from last Friday’s strong advance. August feeders Monday saw solid gains and set a new contract/record high. The past two trading sessions’ price action sets the table for more new for-the-move highs coming in the near term. USDA Monday reported the average cash cattle trading price last week was $242.01, the same as the week prior. The feeder cattle index continues to hover around the all-time high of $346.01. Boxed beef prices also continue to rally, suggesting still-strong demand from retailers.
Lean hog futures pause to start the trading week… August lean hogs saw a quieter, narrow-range trading affair Monday, following decent gains posted last Friday. Selling interest in hog futures was limited Monday amid more gains posted in the cattle futures markets. Hog futures traders will continue to look to the cattle futures markets for daily price direction. The latest CME lean hog index is down 3 cents to $109.80. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Monday was $109.85.
Today’s reports—Tuesday
--10:00 am Food Expenditure Series
--1:00 pm Fruit and Tree Nuts Data
--1:00 pm Vegetables and Pulses Data