Good morning!
Editor’s note: Pro Farmer will be observing an abbreviated schedule today, publishing First Thing Today and After the Bell only. We will resume our regular publishing schedule on Monday, Jan. 5.
Grain futures markets closed overnight… The grain futures markets did not trade overnight, following the New Year’s Day holiday on Thursday. Grain futures trade will open at 8:30 a.m. CST today. The grain market bulls on Wednesday ended 2025 with a whimper, suggesting there may be some follow-through technical selling pressure today, and likely in thin, post-holiday trading conditions. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index up a bit. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer early today and trading around $58.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.11 percent.
Warmer temps coming for the Plains, Midwest… The National Weather Service today said well-above-average temperatures will continue over the interior West and expand northward over the Plains the next couple days. Forecast highs generally range from the 40s and 50s for the interior West; the 50s and 60s for the High Plains, central Plains and Southeast; and 70s and 80s for Texas and along the Gulf Coast. Some record highs well into the 80s are possible across eastern Texas Friday. Meanwhile, conditions remain much colder and below average to the north across portions of the Midwest and into the Northeast. Highs will generally be in the teens and 20s for the Great Lakes and New England with 30s and 40s from the Middle Mississippi Valley east through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Meantime, active lake-effect snows continue for portions of the Great Lakes, particularly downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie, as very cold, westerly flow remains over the lakes. Moderate to locally heavy snows will continue for some of the mountain ranges of the northern/central Rockies and Great Basin. Snowfall is expected to pick back up for portions of the northern Rockies as the upper trough from the west approaches later Saturday. After a brief break, yet another atmospheric river event is heading for California into the weekend.
Trump warns Iran’s military not to attack Iranian protesters… President Trump said the U.S. will come to the rescue of Iranian protesters if they are attacked by Islamic Republic authorities. “If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,” Trump said in a Truth Social post early Friday and as reported by Bloomberg. “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.” Iranian Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani responded on X, saying the U.S. “should be mindful of their soldiers’ safety.” The Trump post, around 3 a.m. Washington time and late morning in Iran, came after protests over a currency slump and soaring prices spread beyond Tehran to cities nationwide. The Iranian currency, the rial, hit a record low on Sunday and worsened an economic crisis in a country already beset by crippling international sanctions. Clashes have broken out between civilians and security forces and at least seven people have been killed in four cities in recent days, according to the AP.
Mexico to reimpose tariffs on foods, including beef, pork and milk… Mexico says it will reimpose tariffs on several staple foods including beef, pork and milk in an attempt to favor local supplies, according to a decree from President Claudia Sheinbaum’s office and as reported by Bloomberg. “The move underscores an ongoing shift away from decades of mostly free-trade polices pursued by previous Mexican governments. The unspecified tariff rates will also be applied to paddy rice, beans, vegetable oils and sausages and go into effect on Jan. 1, according to the decree published Wednesday in the official gazette. The decree is part of Sheinbaum’s “Plan Mexico” initiative to boost domestic industry and reduce imports. The products had been exempted from Mexican import duties beginning in 2022, part of an anti-inflation program to lower prices on a couple dozen popular foods. The decision to revive the tariffs followed an analysis of recent inflationary pressures and the growth rate of imports from countries with which Mexico does not have a free trade agreement. Many imported foods, such as poultry, fish, eggs, vegetables and fruit, will remain tariff-free, according to the decree,” said Bloomberg.
U.S. eases tariff restrictions on furniture, Italian pasta… President Trump delayed tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities, easing the pace of his levies as voter frustration over price levels continues to simmer. The White House published a fact sheet on the presidential proclamation late Wednesday, while Trump hosted a New Year’s Eve party at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, Bloomberg reported. The higher tariffs were due to take effect Thursday, but are now set to take effect Jan. 1, 2027, according to the fact sheet. Meantime, the U.S. decided to reduce controversial anti-dumping tariffs on some Italian pasta brands, Italy’s Foreign Ministry said. The U.S. Department of Commerce made the move before an anti-dumping investigation concludes in March, the ministry said in a statement.
Global stock markets starting 2026 on strong note… European equity markets extended their rally on the first trading day of 2026, with benchmark indices pushing to fresh record highs despite thin liquidity following the New Year holiday. Gains were led by defense stocks, underpinned by persistent geopolitical tensions and expectations of increased military spending across the region. The STOXX 50 climbed 1.1% to a new all-time high of 5,850 points, while the broader STOXX 600 rose 0.5% to a record 596 points. The FTSE 100 surged around 1% on the first trading day of 2026, breaking above the symbolic 10,000-point level for the first time in its history. The DAX in Frankfurt rose 0.4% to approach 24,600 in the first trading session of 2026, setting fresh record high. The Hong Kong Hang Seng surged 708 points, or 2.8%, to finish at a six-week high of 26,384 on Friday, rebounding from previous weakness amid widespread sector strength. Meantime, India’s BSE Sensex closed about 0.67% firmer at 85,762 on Friday, an all-time high, supported by broad-based buying across most sectors. Looking ahead, global investors are searching for fresh catalysts, with close attention on the U.S. interest rate outlook, while geopolitical developments remain a key backdrop for market sentiment. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings today.
U.S. Treasury market remains flat… The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury held around 4.10% on the first trading day of 2026, as Treasury market activity remained thin following the holidays. Investors continue to weigh the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path this year, focusing on upcoming economic releases, including December payrolls due next week, which could shed light on the U.S. labor market and its implications on interest rates. Earlier this week, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s FOMC’s December meeting showed growing openness among policymakers to easing monetary policy if inflation continues to cool. However, FOMC officials remained divided over the timing and scale of potential cuts. Traders are pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2026. Markets are also watching Fed leadership, with President Trump set to name Powell’s successor early this year amid speculation of a dovish pick. TradingEconomics.com
Malaysian palm oil futures start out 2026 weaker… Malaysian palm oil futures slipped around 1% to around MYR 4,000 per MT on Friday, pressured by weaker exports at year-end. Cargo surveyors noted December shipments fell 5.2%–5.8% from November, reinforcing demand concerns. Also, caution mounted ahead of December production data, after November output dipped 5.3% mom to 1.94 million MT. Meantime, top grower Indonesia set its January crude palm oil reference price at USD 915.64 per MT, down from USD 926.14, indicating softer pricing. Still, losses were capped by signs of recovering demand from India, the world’s largest palm oil buyer, as imports rose modestly in November with refiners capitalizing on lower prices. Malaysia continued to diversify export markets toward Africa and the Middle East amid EU trade challenges. In 2025, palm oil prices plunged by nearly 9%, after the prior year’s solid gains, dragged by weaker crude, weather disruptions, and tighter sustainability rules in major markets.
Cattle bulls keeping a firm technical grip… February live cattle on Wednesday rose $1.125 to $231.60 and hit a nine-week high. January feeder cattle gained 70 cents to $350.25, also hitting a nine-week high. USDA reported cash cattle trade so far this week has averaged $228.83 for steers and $229.00 for heifers. Cattle futures have seen technical buying this week, as the near-term technical postures remain bullish amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts.
Hogs slip on some mild profit taking… February lean hog futures Wednesday fell 35 cents to $85.10, nearer the session low. Hog futures saw mild profit-taking pressure and some selling due to a recent dip in cash hog prices. The most recent CME lean hog index is down 19 cents to $82.25 and has declined for consecutive days. Wednesday’s five-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $69.40.