Good morning!
Happy New Year from Pro Farmer!: Markets will be closed Thursday for the New Year’s Day holiday. Pro Farmer will be observing an abbreviated schedule today and Friday, publishing First Thing Today and After the Bell. We will resume our regular publishing schedule on Monday, Jan. 5.
Grain futures weaker overnight… As of 8:00 a.m. CST, March corn was down 1/2 cent and hit a two-week low. March soybeans were down 3 cents and poised to hit a nine-week low during the session. March SRW and HRW wheat futures were down 1 3/4 cents to up 4 3/4 cents and not far above their contract lows. The grain futures markets are looking heavy on this last trading day of 2025. Some end-of-the-quarter and end-of-the-year position evening are featured this week in the grains, to likely add some price pressure. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index up a bit. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer early today and trading around $58.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.14 percent.
Cold, snowy in eastern half of U.S. but warmer temps coming from the west… The National Weather Service today said Arctic air behind a departing intense cyclone will continue to surge into much of the eastern two-thirds of the country today. In the process, the lake-effect “snow machine” will remain active downwind from the Great Lakes and will be reinforced with the arrival of an Alberta clipper today. A reinforcing surge of arctic air will follow behind the clipper system as an arctic high-pressure system from Canada will descend into the northern U.S. today. The forceful push of the arctic cold front is expected to produce snow showers and even snow squalls later today into the early hours of New Year’s Day across the Ohio Valley to Pennsylvania. Adjacent areas across the upper Midwest to the far Northern Plains as well as interior New England can also expect snow showers from the clipper. Meanwhile, freezing temperatures will reach as far south as north-central Florida early this morning before a slow moderating trend sets in. Tranquil weather and milder-than-normal temperatures will prevail across much of the intermountain West under the influence of a stable high-pressure ridge. The milder-than-normal temperatures spilled into the Northern Plains this morning will be shoved farther south into the central Plains as the aforementioned Alberta clipper brings a reinforcing shot of arctic air into the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes today.
Report: China has purchased at least 8 million MT of U.S. soybeans this year… China has bought at least 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg, putting the world’s top bean importer on track to meet a pledge it made two months ago as part of a trade truce with Washington. “State-owned buyers have continued to book U.S. cargoes into late December, the people said, asking not to be named as they are not authorized to discuss the purchases. That extends a buying spree that began in October and maintains a pace that has reassured American exporters, otherwise wary that Beijing’s commitment might slip amid limited visibility and unclear deadlines,” said the report. “The shipments booked so far are mostly for loading between December and March, the people said.” The White House said immediately after talks between President Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that China had pledged to buy at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year. U.S. officials later clarified the deadline was the end of February. Beijing has not confirmed the commitment, but the Chinese government has moved to reduce tariffs on soybeans and lifted import bans on three U.S. exporters, said the report.
Extreme daily price volatility continues in gold, silver futures markets… After posting big price gains on Tuesday, following absorbing huge losses on Monday, the gold and silver markets today are sharply lower again. Grain and livestock futures traders are closely eyeing the metals futures markets and their extreme daily price volatility—providing a bearish lean, especially for grains.CME Group said it will raise margins on precious metals futures for the second time in a week. Margins for gold, silver, platinum and palladium contracts will increase after the close of business today, CME said in a statement. The decision was made based on a review of “market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage,” CME said.
Russia, Ukraine continue to strike each other’s Black Sea ports… Russia and Ukraine struck each other’s Black Sea ports overnight, damaging infrastructure including an oil refinery. A drone attack on the Russian coastal city of Tuapse hit a berth at the port and the local refinery, according to the emergency services and as reported by Bloomberg. In Ukraine, Russian forces struck the port city of Odesa, injuring at least six people and damaging residential properties and infrastructure, according to local authorities. Some residents are without power, water and heating. Moscow and Kyiv have repeatedly targeted each other’s Black Sea ports in recent months, compounding challenges for shippers of various commodities from grains to oil.
Greenback limps out of 2025… The U.S. dollar is poised for its sharpest annual retreat on the foreign exchange market in eight years and investors say more declines are coming if the next Federal Reserve chief opts for deeper interest-rate cuts as expected. Bloomberg reports its Dollar Spot Index has fallen 8.1% this year so far, and the U.S.'s policy path diverges from some of its developed peers, further dimming the dollar’s appeal. The biggest factor for the dollar in the first quarter will be the Fed, and who will be the Fed Chair after Jerome Powell ends his term, said the Bloomberg report.
China to limit beef imports… China says it will restrict beef imports from suppliers including Brazil and Argentina to protect its domestic farmers and producers, imposing a 55% duty on shipments exceeding certain levels, Bloomberg reported. A series of quotas will be in effect from Jan. 1, with total quotas for all beef imports rising incrementally each year from 2.69 million tons in 2026 to 2.8 million tons in 2028. The trade measures are likely to restrict flows of beef into China and could hurt producers and cattle farmers elsewhere, with the Australian Meat Industry Council warning that its beef exports to China could be slashed by about a third, said Bloomberg. China’s top supplier, Brazil, has been allocated just over 1 million tons a year. Quotas for the U.S. are set at 164,000 tons in 2026, rising to 168,000 tons in 2027 and 171,000 tons in 2028 — well above current trade flows, said Bloomberg.
China President Xi upbeat on his economy… President Xi Jinping declared China’s economy is set to hit its growth target in 2025, after what he called an “extraordinary year.” China’s gross domestic product is expected to expand by around 5% this year, Xi told an annual gathering held by the country’s top political advisory body, according to the official Xinhua News Agency and as reported by Bloomberg. “China’s economy is forging ahead under pressure, moving toward innovation and quality, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality,” Xi told an annual meeting of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. “The growth rate is expected to reach around 5%, continuing to rank high among the world’s major economies.” Xi earlier signaled a tolerance for slower growth in some regions and even said recently that China should crack down on “reckless” projects, highlighting his focus on the quality, rather than pace, of economic growth. Meantime, the RatingDog China general manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December from November’s 4-month low of 49.9, topping estimates of 49.8. It marked a marginal return to growth in factory activity as output turned positive and new orders expanded for a seventh straight month. The reading aligned with official data showing a modest rise in manufacturing after eight months of decline.
USDA announces plans to protect U.S. farmland from foreign adversaries… USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on Tuesday announced a number of actions to strengthen transparency around foreign ownership of U.S. agricultural land and ensure federal programs and purchasing preferences do not support supply chains controlled by foreign adversaries. “The actions include opening up an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA) to allow the public an opportunity to comment as USDA moves to improve the regulation and strengthening the implementation of USDA’s BioPreferred Program to ensure federal programs and purchasing preferences prioritize American producers and manufacturers and rid out foreign adversaries,” said a USDA press release. AFIDA requires foreign investors who acquire, transfer, or hold an interest in U.S. agricultural land to report such holdings and transactions to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “Foreign adversary linked entities currently control at least 277,000 acres of agricultural land in the United States. Each acre represents a threat to our food supply chains, a vector for agroterrorism, and a potential platform for surveillance and sabotage of our military bases and critical infrastructure,” said the USDA press release.
Malaysian palm oil futures dip… Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 4,060 per MT on Wednesday, the final trading day of 2025, rattled by weaker rival oils on the Chicago market amid thin holiday trading. The decline came despite early signs of stabilization in exports, with cargo surveyors noting palm oil shipments during December 1–25 rose between 1.6% and 3% from the prior month. Adding to the bearish tone, Indonesia set its crude palm oil reference price for January at USD 915.64, down from USD 926.14 in December, signaling softer pricing conditions in the world’s top-producing nation. Still, losses were limited by a modest rise in palm oil imports in November by the largest consumer, India, as refiners took advantage of lower prices. For the year, palm oil futures are on track to post an overall decline of about 8.5%, reversing last year’s strong gains amid ample supplies and lingering concerns over softer global demand.
Cattle futures see more chart-based buying… February live cattle on Tuesday rose $1.50 to $230.475. January feeder cattle gained $2.55 to $349.55 and hit another nine-week high. The live cattle futures market saw more technical buying from the chart-based speculators. The near-term chart postures for live and feeder cattle futures remain in favor of the bulls. Higher cash cattle prices fetched last week also supported buying interest in futures today. USDA Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $229.33—up $1.36 from the week prior.
Lean hog futures see technical buying, too… February lean hogs on Tuesday rose 97 1/2 cents to $85.45. Hog futures saw a resumption of technical buying as prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The February lean hog futures contract is well above the latest CME lean hog index, which is bullish for futures and suggests futures traders expect the cash hog market to continue to appreciate. The latest CME lean hog index is down $1.40 to $82.44. Today’s projected cash index price is down 19 cents at $82.25.