If the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecast that the El Nino weather phenomenon will form as early as next month, U.S. farmers in the drought-stricken Southern Plains may get some relief later this year.
The weather pattern shouldn’t adversely affect the Corn Belt this summer but could make for tougher conditions in South America and elsewhere.
With 60% of the U.S. in some stage of drought, the appearance of El Nino and the potential for more rain could be an “overall positive” for U.S. farmers, says Brad Rippey, meteorologist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
During El Nino, warm waters rise to the surface across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, along the coast of South America. The center says there’s an 82% change of El Nino emerging in the next three months and could continue through the Northern Hemisphere 2026-2027 winter.
El Nino typically brings more rain to the Southwest, Rippey says, pushing into California, across the Great Plains and perhaps as far north as the Central Plains. Rain could alleviate parched winter wheat areas and revive pasturelands—enough to sometimes produce localized flooding--but farmers shouldn’t expect moisture until late fall.
“El Nino is not going to automatically and rapidly change conditions in the U.S., but certainly, as we move into October and beyond, (there is) optimism for drought relief, particularly in the southern half of the U.S.,” Rippey says.
A milder winter could be on tap for much of the U.S., possibly limiting a repeat of the sharp late-winter cold outbreaks seen over the past few years.
El Nino ups the odds for increased precipitation, but it’s not a guarantee. “It doesn’t happen in 100% of El Ninos.
“It’s more like 70% to 80% of the time,” he says.
‘Godzilla’ El Nino?
The weather forecast models suggest this El Nino could be one of the strongest in recent years, with terms like “super” or “Godzilla,” being used to describe it, says Shel Winkley, meteorologist at non-profit research organization Climate Central. The Pacific has been in a prolonged heat wave, and the water temperatures were already warmer than what meteorologists typically see as El Nino builds.
El Nino events are natural climate cycles that boost the global temperature. Winkley and Rippey say that the impact will take time to build through the Northern Hemisphere summer into fall, winter and next year. Currently, this El Nino is slated to be the second warmest on record behind 2024 as human-driven climate change plays a larger role in the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather, Winkley says.
“We’ll have to see what that means for 2027 as really that heat is actualized. And I bring that up because we know that that global temperature then feeds into the extreme weather experience,” Winkley says.
Localized impacts are “still at the whim of weather, but we know that that can really amplify some of the extreme weather that we experience during these El Nino times, especially for one that’s expected to be as strong as the one that’s building,” he says.
Corn Belt outlook
El Nino shouldn’t affect Corn Belt farmers this summer, but even in its absence, the seasonal outlook shows some good news for the Midwest. Weather patterns are shifting from a La Nina--cooler sea waters in the Pacific—to El Nino. Models suggest a supportive jet stream pattern with a ridge of high pressure in the western U.S. and a dip into the Midwest for this summer. If that continues, it favors corn and soybean production in the Corn Belt, but hot and dry conditions for the northwest, Rippey says.
“At this moment in time, we are not expecting significant Midwestern drought, unrelated El Nino,” he says, adding that the Midwest is “one of the few areas the United States right now not dealing with drought.”
Mike Tannura, chief meteorologist and agricultural economist at T-Storm Weather, says two out of five times since 1970 during La Nina to El Nino transitions, corn yields were mostly around trend or better, which happened in 1972 and 1982.
He says those years showed about a 12 bushel per acre above trend for U.S. corn. “With today’s trend at roughly 184 bpa, an analog-type outcome could imply something on the order of around 196 bpa,” he says, adding that data for soybean yields is less clear during this time.
However, Madelynn Wuestenberg, agricultural climatology extension specialist at Iowa State University, doesn’t see a connection between yields and El Nino. Her research looking at temperature and rainfall from June-August in Iowa during strong El Nino years such as 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 don’t show a consistent yield or weather pattern (see chart below).
She says El Nino can produce a warmer and somewhat drier winter in much of the Midwest because of the jet stream configuration. Less snow and less winter precipitation could mean reduced potential to build subsoil moisture, something farmers should watch going into next spring’s planting season if soils don’t recharge well.
Global implications
U.S. farmers may be less affected by El Nino, but it can wreak havoc in other parts of the world.Northern Brazil can dry during El Ninos, but southern Brazil and Argentina can see wetter and generally favorable weather conditions for crops, although it can be too wet sometimes.
Dryness can be a significant issue for areas closest to the equator, such as Australia, Indonesia, South Africa and India. The earliest impact of El Nino may be seen in a weaker-than-usual monsoon in India, Rippey says.
That can affect wheat harvests in Australia and palm oil production in Indonesia. “Palm oil can be significantly impacted. Sometimes there is a lag, so you might see the drought affecting production later,” he says.