USDA’s corn yield and ending stocks pegs landed below the average pre-report estimate, with harvested corn acres up by 1.2 million. Soybean production was slightly higher than expected despite a 0.3 bu. cut to yield due to a 1.4-million-acre-increase in harvested acres.

Analysts forecast corn yields at 182.4 bu/acre and soybeans at 52.9 bu/acre in USDA’s first survey-based crop production report, with total corn production seen at 15.934 billion bushels versus last year’s 17.021 billion. Private estimates range widely as weather stress takes a toll in some areas.

Rain and cooler temps were welcome after intense July heat, though the high temps have returned in the mid- to lower Midwest, raising concern for the soybean crop as it advances through its most critical growth stage.

After years of dry falls, a historic El Niño could cut U.S. farmers’ fall field-workable days by 20%, Nutrien’s Eric Snodgrass warns, while drying delays and flat acreage threaten Brazil and Argentina’s 2026-2027 crop.

Sentiment in the July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is improving and no one sees the downturn deepening, but interest rates, elevated input costs and corn’s shaky price outlook still cloud the path to 2027.

A year after StoneX’s survey shocked the market, two StoneX economists sit down for an exclusive interview, saying this year’s numbers tell a very different story about what will drive prices.

Data shows soybean crush and renewable diesel output are hitting all-time highs, driven by strong domestic biofuel policy, while new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian tallow add fresh demand in the biofuel feedstock market.

Producers share real-time, boots-on-the-ground assessments of crop conditions.

The farm economy is at a crossroads. High costs and negative margins are driving record government payments, but economists say innovation, lower costs and new demand are key to restoring profitability.

USDA pegged new crop corn ending stocks at 1.790 billion bu., well below the average pre-report estimate of 1.873 billion bu. World ending stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat also landed below expectations.