La Niña might have been the only hope for a production problem in South America to trim their record soybean crop outlook. However, Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist and senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag, told farmers at the South Dakota Soybean Ag Outlook meeting in Sioux Falls, La Niña is starting to weaken — and along with it, the possibility of production problems in South America.
“I’m worried about La Niña already running its course. What I mean by that is normally La Niña’s build through December, peaks around the holidays and then wanes in February. This one’s already starting to back off,” Snodgrass explains.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also issued their outlook for La Niña this week, which includes the weather pattern persisting for the next month or two before fading out in early 2026. That does not mean much for U.S. weather, but it could limit precipitation during South America’s growing season. However, it would fade in South America after the most critical part of the soybean reproductive phase, so if there is an impact in Brazil it would likely be to the second crop corn.
In a La Niña pattern, stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm water toward Asia. That results in an up-welling of cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface off the west coast of the Americas, with implications for global weather patterns. The current La Niña pattern has been relatively weak, analysts note.
As such, Snodgrass says he’s cautious about the South American forecast during their critical soybean production phase in January and February.
“Normally if you’re saying, what’s La Niña do, it means a wet Brazil and dry Argentina. El Nino flips it around. I don’t know where we’re going to be because we’re transitioning toward neutral conditions quickly, which means we’re going to have to watch other sub-seasonal factors. If the markets are going to follow weather, they’re going to be on a two -week schedule,” according to Snodgrass.
It’s Raining in Brazil
In the past two weeks, Brazil has been getting needed rains in main production areas, so dryness is no longer a concern. While its early, Snodgrass doesn’t see many production problems and neither do market analysts.
“I look at NDVI values,” he says. “They don’t look off. They’re closer to average.”
Brian Grete, grain and livestock analyst with Commstock Investments, says Brazil has seen thunderstorms over a wide area in the past 10 to 20 days.
“Some of the drier areas have received rains. The rains have come through central Brazil, northeastern Brazil and east-central Brazil, but the Southern areas have turned dry,” he adds.
There’s more rain in Brazil’s forecast in the next 14 days as several cool fronts pass, with 100% to 200% of normal rainfall predicted for all but Rio Grade do Sul in the South, which accounts for nearly 15% of Brazil’s soybean production. Grete says.
“We’ll have to watch that Southern area of Brazil to see if it continues to remain dry, which the forecast suggests through the end of this month,” he adds.
Meanwhile, Argentina is expected to get 50% of normal rainfall the next 14 days, but there are no real concerns there either.
Conab Adjusts Brazil Crop Slightly
On Thursday, CONAB left Brazil corn production nearly unchanged at 138.879 MMT, which is below expectations of 140.96 MMT. The agency cut soybean production from last month by about 550,000 metric tons to 177.12 MMT, mainly due to slightly lower acreage. That was below the expected 179.2 MMT. However, this still a record crop of more than 6.5 billion bushels. CONAB cited some replanting last month due to irregular rainfall, but rains have normalized in most areas of Brazil, and with La Niña starting to fade they may be on pace to hit that record soybean estimate.
Rosario Grain Exchange Leaves Argentina Crop Unchanged
The Rosario Grain Exchange left their corn production estimate at 61 MMT with 57% of the crop planted. The exchange also left soybean production unchanged at 47 MMT and reported 64% of the country had the crop seeded.
Meteorologists forecast the current weak La Niña could result in hotter and dryer-than-normal conditions across Argentina during December and January, notes crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier. That hasn’t yet materialized, he adds, and crops are doing quite well with 61% of soybeans rated good or excellent.
Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged this week at 49.0 MMT with a neutral bias. If the anticipated La Niña impact takes hold, the estimate is probably too high, he says. If the impact doesn’t materialize, the estimate is probably too low.