The pace of corn export shipments so far this year have been record high. Exporters have been focused on shipping corn early in the marketing year rather than soybeans amid China’s absence from the U.S. soybean market. Typically, U.S. exporters ship the majority of the years soybeans in the fall. This year, that has not been the case, which opened up logistics to boost corn. That has allowed U.S. export of corn to maintain a robust pace.
USDA increased its export forecast to a record 3.200 billion bushels in their December update. Trade did not expect much of a change in the balance sheet from USDA’s slew of data in November and the 125 million bushel increase to exports surpassed expectations.
When compared to final exports, shipments are running at the highest pace since 2018. That date sticks out as the peak of the first trade war with China in Trump’s initial term. The robust pace of shipments even after accounting for USDA raising its export forecasts says USDA could have increased their forecast even more, but are remaining somewhat conservative given soybeans could take up some bandwidth in the latter half of the marketing year.
What about soybeans?
As good as corn exports have been, soybeans have been as poor. USDA opted to leave their export estimate unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. China’s absence from the U.S. soybean market, receiving zero shipments into early November, has weighed heavily on the soybean market. Accumulated shipments as a portion of total exports are historically low, but not far off from 2018’s lackluster pace.
The poor pace of exports indicates USDA could have justified a cut to their export forecast. It appears to be somewhat optimistic on exports in the latter portion of the marketing year, which could make up for slow shipments. China has reentered the U.S. market but still at a rather lackluster level. If China show’s up en force, it would have a significant impact on the balance sheet, as even weak exports have the balance sheet at a historically tight level.
