Across America’s heartland, most corn and soybean crops are harvested, combines have been put away, and farmers will gather with their families to enjoy the holidays ahead. But as farmers gather around dinner tables and give thanks for what they have, many are concerned about what they don’t have this fall – adequate cash flow.
That lack is the No. 1 issue facing farmers now, according to southeast Illinois farmer Sherman Newlin, who’s based in Crawford County.
“I think these low prices are starting to take a toll on guys trying to meet their cash-flow needs,” he says.
For many farmers, Newlin believes the issue isn’t just about surviving until next spring — it’s about paying land rents, covering input bills coming due, and staying afloat right now.
“Unless you’re in a good area that had really good yields, cash flow is probably going to be tight,” Newlin says.
Northeast Iowa Brent Judisch doesn’t sugarcoat the numbers he penciled out last Wednesday. “Our cash corn today is at $4.10 — that’s not going to cut it with an average yield. Our cash beans today are $10.60. With a good bean crop, that probably cash flows, but it doesn’t make any money,” he says.
Farmers Took Grain To Town At Harvest
Selling grain is about the only option many row-crop growers have had this fall to meet expenses, even if the market timing isn’t ideal, Newlin says.
“Prices for corn and soybeans have come up some. At harvest, things were quite a bit lower than where they are right now,” Newlin says. “But it’s kind of hard to take advantage of a rally if you sold across the scale and didn’t come back in and reown [the crop] on paper.”
Judisch says there are some “better bids out there” for farmers who can wait to market corn in late winter, February and March.
“But for the short term, [buyers] are not having to bid up that much to get it because guys are just having to turn some stuff into cash to pay the December rents,” he says.
The November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey reflects farmers’ current cash-flow pressure as well as their mindset in how they are approaching marketing decisions now. The survey, administered by Farm Journal, shows:
- 53% of ag economists say farmers are marketing defensively, prioritizing liquidity and risk reduction.
- 41% of ag economists say farmers are reactive, delaying decisions due to uncertainty.
Where Is The Financial Stress Most Severe?
Jackson Takach, chief economist for Farmer Mac, tells Farm Journal his reports indicate farmers’ top concern is liquidity (working capital) and their second-highest concern is farm income.
“We know cash flows are top of mind,” he says. “As prices have come down, people are talking about it more and digging into working capital, and that’s causing a little bit of distress, particularly in the grain side of the ag economy.”
Takach says the economic stress is highest in parts of the country where soybeans are farmers’ No. 1 crop.
“You look at the Delta, that’s where we’re seeing a lot of stress popping up in bankruptcies as well as late payments, because of some of that additional stress coming through with lower commodity prices specific to soybeans.”
That sentiment is similar to what was shared in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey, though the Monitor paints a broader picture. When asked in which region farmers face the most severe financial pressure, economists reported that “cotton and rice country is suffering from especially poor profitability and weak sentiment.”
Without action, long-term farmer viability is at risk, according to John Newton, American Farm Bureau Federation economist. “Additional financial support is critical to offset trade losses and provide a bridge until farm bill enhancements from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act go into effect,” he says in a release. “This will stabilize the farm economy, sustain rural economies and maintain affordable food prices.”
Will China Come Through On Soybean Purchases?
The fate of soybean exports is on nearly everyone’s radar, especially as China’s purchases for 2025 still hang in the balance.
Reuters’ Karl Plume reports that China is starting to make good on its promises, noting that “two cargo vessels were headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans on Monday to load with the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters.”
But Judisch warns the window for 2025 U.S. soybean sales to China is closing fast.
“We’re going to have to see some immediate results from this agreement [with China], because if this drags into January and February and Brazil comes online, I’m not very optimistic that we’re going to make the goals that were set between the U.S. and China.”
Farmers Press On And Start Planning For Next Season
With 2026 around the corner, cautious optimism about the new year mingles with the current hard reality of farmers’ cash-flow drought.
Judisch notes that successful negotiations by the Trump administration to drop tariffs on some items, such as fertilizer, aren’t helping financially strapped farmers. He says that was a scenario of a little help that arrived too late.
“Stopping the tariffs on fertilizer this late in the game does no good for the 2026 crop because you’ve either got it on fields already or your buildings are already full of high-priced fertilizer,” Judisch contends.
“It’s kind of a bugaboo for us,” he adds. “Our costs are staying high even with the tariffs being dropped on fertilizer, but our income is just not going to be there until probably next summer.”
Cash rents for 2026 is one important aspect of the financial equation for the year ahead that 100% of ag economists surveyed this month recommend farmers dig into now. Notes one ag economist: “Cash rent could use more attention as a majority of land is rented… it would be nice if landlords knew that they may need to lower cash rent.”
Newlin says he and other farmers he knows in his area are sorting through crop rotations for next season – whether to plant more corn and
fewer soybeans or less corn and more soybeans.
“We’ll probably be heavier corn next year just because of our rotation, but a lot of guys are going to be heavier in corn in our area,” Newlin says.
Judisch is sticking with his 60-40 ratio of corn to beans next season. Like Newlin, he believes other farmers could lean toward more corn in the year ahead, given the financial opportunity many believe corn offers.
“We’ve seen some very good export sales on corn, so there are some good things happening,” Judisch says. “We need to keep them going in the future. That’s the biggest thing.”
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