Farm Economy
USDA’s chief economist says 2026 brings moderating costs, slightly higher crop prices and shifting acreage, but he warns biofuels policy and global competition remain key wild cards for farm income.
According to the National Cotton Council’s (NCC) Planting Intentions Survey, U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.0 million cotton acres this spring, a 3.2% decline from 2025, with a nearly 21% drop in the Mid-South.
The January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows high input costs, weak prices, policy uncertainty and eroding trust in data have pushed many producers from planning for profitability to fighting for survival.
While some producers managed to stay profitable in 2025, most struggled under tight margins, making them the exception rather than the rule, according to ag lender Alan Hoskins.
In addition to higher farm payments and better crop insurance, Paul Neiffer says the most overlooked impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill could be how farmers structure their operations.
During his trip to Clive, Iowa, Trump reaffirms support for year-round E15, backing corn growers and ethanol, while announcing John Deere’s expansion of two new domestic production and distribution facilities.
After years of losses, debt is piling up and new government payments won’t fill the hole. At a breaking point, more farmers are expected to leave the business this year, some by choice, others forced out by lenders.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.
Heading into 2026, markets hinge on EPA biofuel rules, global fertilizer supply and acreage shifts. StoneX warns tight inputs, policy delays and weather risk will shape crop prices and farm margins.
As farmers look ahead to 2026, grain markets are sending mixed signals based on record corn exports, large supplies, federal payments and ongoing China trade uncertainty.