Farm Economy
After years of losses, debt is piling up and new government payments won’t fill the hole. At a breaking point, more farmers are expected to leave the business this year, some by choice, others forced out by lenders.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.
Heading into 2026, markets hinge on EPA biofuel rules, global fertilizer supply and acreage shifts. StoneX warns tight inputs, policy delays and weather risk will shape crop prices and farm margins.
As farmers look ahead to 2026, grain markets are sending mixed signals based on record corn exports, large supplies, federal payments and ongoing China trade uncertainty.
Record corn exports are tightening stocks and lifting prices, but long-term strength depends on expanding domestic demand. Could year-round E15 overcome legislative hurdles in Washington and change the market trajectory?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says China is making progress on its commitment to buy U.S. soybeans, hitting the “correct cadence,” with purchases expected to wrap by February 2026 — underscoring ongoing trade commitments and support for farmers.
The Dec. 1 sale in Sioux County not only sets a farmer-buyer record for Iowa, but according to Jim Rothermich, it highlights fierce demand for premium ground as lower-quality farms see more no sales.
Going into the final weeks of the year, many growers across the country are shouldering significant financial strain from land rent payments, rising input costs, and efforts to stay in business and viable until commodity prices improve.
USDA says anticipated trade aid could be announced the first week of December, but ag economists are split on whether payments would provide relief or worsen lingering risks such as high input costs and market distortions.
Reflecting a marked decline in expectations as margins tighten, ag lenders surveyed in mid-2025 report only around 52% of their farm-business borrowers will remain profitable this year.