Farm Economy
The farm economy is at a crossroads. High costs and negative margins are driving record government payments, but economists say innovation, lower costs and new demand are key to restoring profitability.
As margins squeeze producer confidence, the Purdue-CME Ag Economy Barometer highlights deep skepticism over AI tools alongside a massive gap in expectations between crop and livestock sectors.
Analysis of 2023–2025 prices found U.S. growers paid more for nearly every seed and crop protection category examined.
Farm Journal’s June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows a weaker ag economy versus a year ago, but more than 80% expect consistent or better conditions over the next 12 months despite ongoing margin pressure.
Producers need to play defense in the face of an uncertain outlook for rates, sticky inflation and what may become a more opaque Federal Reserve.
The May Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor reveals growing concern over farm profitability, rising debt costs and long-term financial stress, with economists saying many operations may need significant restructuring to remain viable.
Fresh analysis from FAPRI finds passage of year-round E15 would bring limited near-term gains to corn prices, while SRE changes would put pressure on farm income and negatively impact soybeans.
Today’s market is evolving, not just correcting, according to ag economists. To win the long game, farmers are using generics and delaying machinery purchases as trade shifts to allies and consumers demand premium meat portions.
The RFS Set 2 rule is projected to increase net farm income by $4 billion and create a $31 billion market for corn and soybean oil while supporting 100,000 new rural jobs.
USDA’s chief economist says 2026 brings moderating costs, slightly higher crop prices and shifting acreage, but he warns biofuels policy and global competition remain key wild cards for farm income.