The October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor paints a tough picture for U.S. farmers heading into 2026: weak trade demand, stubbornly high input costs and continued consolidation across agriculture. While experts say today’s challenges don’t match the full-blown crisis of the 1980s, most agree the current downturn is dragging on with few signs of a quick turnaround.
“High input costs and the inability of domestic soybean crush growth to offset lost Chinese demand” continue to weigh heavily on profitability, one economist explains.
Another adds: “The lack of trade opportunities, and high input costs, are doing the most damage right now.”
A third economist sums it up more bluntly: “Margins are collapsing, and optimism is evaporating fast.”
Conditions Expected to Continue or Worsen Into 2026
One of the major themes in the latest survey is the fact negative margins could be a theme for row crop agriculture for the foreseeable future.
Nearly 60% of economists say the farm economy is worse off than a month ago, and almost 90% believe it’s weaker than last year. 76% expect the situation to persist or even worsen through 2026, while only a quarter expect any improvement in the next 12 months. As one economist puts it: “It’s not a collapse, but it’s a grind.”
Others emphasize the fatigue setting in across the countryside.
“Farmers have been absorbing higher costs for two years without any real recovery in prices,” says one respondent.
“That wears on you,” another adds. “It’s like death by a thousand cuts — not one thing is breaking the farm economy, but everything’s contributing.”
With nearly eight out of every 10 economists surveyed projecting conditions to persist or worsen over the next 12 months, Ben Brown, University of Missouri Extension economist, says it reiterates the concern that farmers could face more tough decisions next year.
“I think the expectation for conditions to stay challenging shows up in multiple points of the responses, just this continued downturn and extended pressure on farm finances absent some type of market rally. Maybe that’s a yield shortfall due to drought somewhere in the world. But absent of that, I think we’re this slow grind lower trying to figure out how to find an equilibrium point where producers are looking at moving cropland out of production, maybe putting it to more pasture or CRP,” Brown says. “Long story short, we’re looking for any of those available measures that reduce production enough to help rally prices.”
Even livestock markets, one of the few bright spots, come with caveats.
“Livestock returns have been better than nearly anyone expected at the beginning of the year,” one economist notes, “especially cattle and hogs.”
But another warns: “If consumer spending slows down, beef and pork demand could take a hit, and that changes the outlook quickly.”
Echoes of the 1980s — But Not the Same
While 69% of economists say today’s farm economy shows similarities to the 1980s crisis, most stress the safety nets are stronger now.
“There are far more safeguards today: crop insurance, FSA loan programs and countercyclical payments,” one economist says.
Still, they caution against complacency.
“While farm bankruptcies may increase, it’s not likely to reach the 1980s level,” another economist adds, “but let’s not understate how bad things are now.”
Another adds: “The lack of profitability for row crops and the number of farmers exiting the industry — that’s what feels eerily familiar.”
One economist offers a sobering parallel, saying: “Things are bad — even if it’s not the same type of bad as the ’80s. The difference is this time, it’s a slow burn instead of a crash.”
University of Missouri’s Brown says the similarities between now and the 1980s are glaring: Profitability and working capital have eroded for several consecutive years.
“That liquidity issue is really starting to impact some of the broader financial indicators,” he says. “That’s what’s similar [to the 1980s] is the tight liquidity margins. We’ve seen farm bankruptcies start to take up as well. They’re not as high as what we saw during the 1980s yet.”
Yet, Brown points out there are some clear differences, as well as indicators, such as land values, that signal this period is vastly different from the 1980s.
Farm Consolidation Pressures Mount
Nearly all economists see continued consolidation reshaping rural America. In the September survey, 91% of ag economists said they expect the current situation to accelerate the current rate of consolidation in agriculture. In this month’s survey, economists think this will cause fewer, larger farms, fewer service centers and higher barriers for beginning farmers.
“Larger operations will get larger, and we’ll lose some of the diversity that smaller producers bring to the industry,” one respondent says.
Another adds: “Fewer, larger farms mean fewer families in rural communities — and less political and economic diversity.”
Some economists express concern over how this trend could alter the future of farming.
“Higher barriers to entry for young farmers, dwindling rural populations and loss of local ag suppliers — that’s where we’re headed,” one respondent warns.
Another sums it up: “We’re becoming a nation of mega farms. That’s efficient, but it’s not healthy.”
Livestock Outlook Still a Bright Spot
Nearly half of the economists expect the cattle bull market to continue for another 19 to 24 months, while others see a slowdown by late 2026 as herd rebuilding begins.
“At current prices, we’ll see no or little herd expansion,” one economist warns. “Clear signals that domestic beef production is increasing may be the key catalyst for a market top.”
Others were more optimistic.
“Tight supply and strong global demand could keep this market higher for longer,” one respondent writes, “but beef demand depends on consumers continuing to open their wallets.”
Another adds: “The market’s got legs — but it’s walking on thin ice.”
It’s key to note this survey was conducted prior to President Donald Trump saying the U.S. would start importing more beef from Argentina, while also suggesting the White House is working to bring beef prices down. Once that news broke this week, the cattle markets crashed, sending cattle futures limit down.
Why are U.S. farmers and ranchers furious about the Trump administration’s new allegiance with Argentina? Arlan Suderman says it’s all part of a 3D chess match with China. He explains the complex relationship, and the impact on U.S. farmers and ranchers, in the video below.
Trade Troubles Deepen
China’s cooling appetite for U.S. ag products remains a major worry. The October survey found 76% of economists believe China won’t return to 2022 purchasing levels, and 88% say pre-trade-war demand is gone for good.
“China has been working toward deleveraging from the U.S. for two decades,” one expert says. “This is the culmination of a long-term process.”
Another wrote: “China will not purchase U.S. ag products unless it has to; it will always prefer other suppliers.”
The biggest winner? Brazil. When asked who’s winning the trade war between the U.S. and China, 100% of economists said Brazil.
“Brazil has definitely benefited; it’s literally being handed additional market share,” another economist notes.
Others agree: “Make Brazil great again — that’s what’s happening,” one quips. Several economists warn if the U.S. doesn’t aggressively pursue new markets, “our export position could permanently erode.”
Looking Ahead
Despite stronger farm balance sheets and fixed-rate debt, the mix of low profitability, high costs and global oversupply continues to pressure producers. Labor shortages, rising cash rents and limited trade growth are adding to the strain.
“Rising cash rents are eating into margins faster than yields or prices can recover,” one economist says.
Another points to policy fatigue: “There’s too much focus on short-term trade aid and not enough long-term market strategy.”
As one respondent summarizes: “Things are bad, even if it’s not the same kind of bad as the 1980s. We’re in a long, grinding cycle — and patience is wearing thin.”