Ag Economists Monthly Monitor

Although warning signs are emerging, economists say record-high beef prices could hold for up to two more years. Tight supplies and strong demand continue to drive the market, but economists and producers are apprehensive with talks of reopening the border.

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist.

Here’s how accelerated consolidation could change the way agriculture looks in the future.

Farm economists say today’s ag slowdown “isn’t a collapse, but it’s a grind.” From trade woes to rising costs and consolidation, experts warn recovery could take time, even as livestock markets stay strong.

The Farm Journal September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor makes it clear: Working capital is thinning, export markets are shaky and long-term crop margins could get ugly. But for now, one thing is still keeping its strength: Americans’ appetite for beef.

There’s light at the end of the tunnel, but we might not see it completely turn around for two to three years,” says Grant Gardner, University of Kentucky ag economist.

Farm Journal’s September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found nearly half of the ag economists surveyed say the U.S. ag economy is worse off than a month ago and will remain depressed or even worsen over the next 12 months.

Fifty-three percent of agricultural economists surveyed in the July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor say the row crops side of agriculture is currently in a recession, which is down from the 72% who responded that way in May.