Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, an anonymous survey sent to nearly 70 ag economists each month, shows growing concern about the farm economy. “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory breaks down the latest results, pointing to four key findings.
1. Recession Calls Hit a Survey High
A record 91% of ag economists now say the farm economy is in a recession. That’s the highest level since the survey began, fueled by record input costs while commodity prices remain depressed. Still, about 10% pushed back, arguing that as long as farmland values hold strong, agriculture’s store of wealth remains intact and technically keeps the sector out of a recession.
“Basically what they’re saying is that we’re not going to be in a recession until we see land prices start to pull back,” Flory explains. “That’s where agriculture stores its wealth. As long as those land prices hold up … we are not going to be in a recession as long as that store of wealth remains safe.”
2. Bleak Outlook for 2026
While opinions about the next 12 months are mixed — 50% expect some improvement, 30% think it will worsen — the longer-term picture is troubling. Economists expect 2026 corn and soybean crops to be breakeven at best, with potential losses of up to $200 per acre.
“The expectations on the ’26 crops are that, at best, it’s going to be breakeven on corn and soybeans,” Flory says. “There’s expectations for losses up to $200 an acre among the survey respondents … We’ve drained a lot of working capital out of the industry already. And it’s really going to get tight in 2026 if this continues.”
3. Soybean Exports Under Pressure
Economists see U.S. soybean demand as vulnerable. USDA currently projects 1.705 billion bushels in exports, but survey respondents say that’s a best-case scenario. Some expect exports could fall below 1.4 billion bushels, a 300-million-bushel drop that could be catastrophic.
“China is obviously doing everything that it possibly can to avoid buying U.S. soybeans,” Flory says. “The current USDA export estimate … is a best-case scenario that the economists expect. Some see it all the way down under 1.4 billion bushels. To take another 300 million bushels off of bean export demand might be catastrophic.”
There are still a majority of economists who think China will still buy soybeans from the U.S. this year, with 54% responding “yes.”
4. Screwworm Detection Near Border Raises Concerns Over Mexican Cattle Imports
This week, New World screwworm was detected just 70 miles from the U.S.–Mexico border, sparking renewed debate over cattle imports and whether USDA should keep the border closed to live cattle imports.
In the September Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists were asked: Should the U.S. reopen its border to cattle imports from Mexico? Eighty percent said no.
Their concern is the risk of screwworm spreading to U.S. herds.
- “It’s important we continue to protect the health of our beef herd. Screwworm could have a devastating effect,” said one economist.
- “Each day of delay [on reopening the border] gives more time to develop effective treatments/response,” was another response.
With the U.S. cattle herd already at a 75-year low, screwworm infestations can cause massive losses in livestock, threatening both animal health, and, according to economists, that’s also a threat to the ag economy.
The Bright Spot: Beef Demand Stays Strong
There is a bright spot. Despite record-high retail prices, which economists thought would taper the hunger for U.S. beef, beef demand is holding firm. Two-thirds of economists say beef demand is inelastic, meaning consumers keep buying even as prices rise.
“It’s quality. Quality is a big part of the reason why,” Flory says. “We’ve done an unbelievable job responding to consumer demands to put choice and prime beef in the meat case … Consumers recognize the improvement in quality, and they’re responding by continuing to buy beef. The other thing is … high protein diets. That is a real thing that we need to adjust to, not only in beef, but in pork too.”
You can see the full results of the latest Monthly Monitor here.