Good morning!
Grain futures markets mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was steady, March soybeans were up 5 3/4 cents and March SRW and HRW wheat futures were down 1 1/2 to 2 cents. It’s jobs Friday, so the outside markets could have a bigger impact on grain futures trading today. At the same time, Monday’s USDA supply and demand reports could make for more subdued trading in the grains today. (See analysts’ forecasts in item below.) The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a four-week high. Nymex crude oil futures prices are up early today and trading around $58.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.19 percent.
Snow, rain and drizzle over much of the central United States… The National Weather Service today said a strong Colorado low-pressure system is forecast to lift from the upper Midwest into northeast Canada today, pulling a cold front southward across the High Plains to the Ohio Valley. This will lead to 6-8" of snowfall across the central/southern high Plains today, where winter storm warnings are in effect. The Midwest will see some light to moderate snow and some drizzle the next couple days, with seasonal temperatures. Meanwhile, in the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, numerous instances of flash flooding are expected over portions of southern Mississippi and adjacent Louisiana amid thunderstorms, potentially leading to 5-8" of rainfall. A few tornadoes, wind and hail are also expected.
It’s jobs Friday, and maybe more… Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate that 70,000 new positions in the U.S. labor market were added in December, slightly higher than the prior month, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5%. Markets at present have priced in at least two quarter-point Fed interest rate cuts in 2026, with odds favoring the first cut coming in April. “The market is hoping for the jobs data to land on the fairway. Too much job creation would hint the economy is getting hot, while a number close to zero would point, in contrast, to a slump,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “Neither option is good,” he said, according to Bloomberg. As the dust settles from the 7:30 a.m. CST jobs report, traders will then be on high alert for the possible release as soon as mid-morning of a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs. An opinion against the tariffs, which have generated hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue and eased pressure on the U.S. budget deficit, could roil the U.S. stock and financial markets.
Trump cancels second wave of attacks on Venezuela… President Trump today said a second wave of attacks on Venezuela has been canceled, citing improved cooperation from the country, Bloomberg reported. Venezuela is “working well” with the U.S. on rebuilding its oil and gas infrastructure and releasing “large numbers” of political prisoners, Trump wrote in a social-media post on Truth Social early today. That means another wave of strikes doesn’t appear necessary, he said. Trump is meeting with U.S. oil executives later today as his administration pushes them to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector. The U.S. military activity in the region may not be over, though. Trump said on Thursday that strikes were being prepared against drug cartel facilities, just days after he ordered an operation to capture Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro.
Trump directs federal housing agencies to purchase mortgage securities… President Trump is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to bring down housing costs. Trump announced the move in a social media post overnight, saying it will drive U.S. mortgage rates down and make the cost of owning a home more affordable. The bond purchases are expected to have downward pressure on mortgage rates, with some estimates suggesting a drop of at least a quarter of a point, although some analysts are not convinced of the move’s impact.
Civil unrest in Iran intensifies… Iran’s supreme leader signaled Friday that security forces would crack down on protesters after they screamed from windows and marched through the streets overnight, directly challenging President Trump’s pledge to support those peacefully demonstrating. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed Trump as having hands “stained with the blood of Iranians” as supporters shouted “Death to America!” in footage aired by Iranian state television, the Associated Press reported. Protesters are “ruining their own streets to make the president of another country happy,” Khamenei said, referring to Trump. There was no immediate response from Washington, though Trump reiterated his pledge to strike Iran if protesters are killed. Despite Iran’s theocracy cutting off the nation from the internet and international telephone calls, short online videos shared by activists purported to show protesters chanting against Iran’s government around bonfires as debris littered the streets in the capital, Tehran, and other areas into Friday morning. Iranian state media alleged “terrorist agents” of the U.S. and Israel set fires and sparked violence. It also said there were “casualties,” without elaborating.
Russia launches rare and powerful missiles to strike western Ukraine, alarming Europe… Russia carried out an air strike near Ukraine’s western border with an intermediate-range ballistic missile known as Oreshnik, sending a threatening signal to Kyiv’s allies amid a widespread air attack that targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and damaged apartment buildings. The Russian Defense Ministry said it launched a “massive strike with high-precision, long-range, land- and sea-based weapons, including the Oreshnik,” against critical targets, according to a statement on Telegram Friday and as reported by Bloomberg. Ukraine’s military said the attack targeted infrastructure in the western city of Lviv, about 37 miles from the border with Poland, using a ballistic missile, while President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later confirmed Russia fired its Oreshnik weapon in a statement on X. “Such a strike close to EU and NATO border is a grave threat to the security on the European continent and a test for the transatlantic community,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on X. “This is truly a global threat. And it demands global responses.” The unusual strike with the new nuclear-capable missile was a reminder of Moscow’s readiness to brandish some of its most powerful weapons in the war — even as US President Donald Trump presses his effort to bring an end to the conflict, said the Bloomberg report.
Severe heatwave bakes Australia… World Weather Inc. says Australia reported another excessively hot day Thursday. Temperatures in South Australia, northwestern Victoria and southwestern New South Wales varied from 110 to 118 degrees. The heatwave impacting Australia has been a week-long event beginning in Western Australia last weekend and early part of this workweek. The heat gradually shifted to the east and impacted many areas of northern and central parts of Western Australia, through South Australia and central and southern parts of Northern Territory into far southwestern Queensland and much of New South Wales and northwestern Victoria. Temperatures in areas outside of those mentioned above saw highs ranging from 100 to 113 degrees. “All of the heat was stressful for humans and livestock as well as any living thing. Most of the winter crop harvest is complete, but there are a few areas in the southeast of Australia that produce spring and summer crops which were impacted by the extreme
conditions,” said World Weather.
Grain traders await Monday’s USDA S&D data… Trading in the grain futures markets may be more subdued today and Monday morning, ahead of Monday’s midday USDA final 2025 crop production report, quarterly grain stocks, South American corn and soybean production, and U.S. wheat seedings data. The following are averages of analysts’ estimates, compiled by Reuters, ahead of Monday’s report that comes out at 11:00 a.m. CST. For U.S. corn and soybeans, the marketing year begins on September 1 and ends on August 31. The marketing year for U.S. wheat begins on June 1 and ends on May 31.
--2025 U.S. corn production: 16.552 billion bu. (16.752 billion in the November report) and an average yield of 184.00 bu. an acre (186.0 in the November report).
--2025 U.S. soybean production: 4.229 billion bu. (4.253 billion in the November report) and an average yield of 52.7 bu. an acre (53.0 in the November report).
--U.S. quarterly corn stocks as of Dec. 1 are estimated at 12.962 billion bu. (12.075 billion bu. on Dec. 1, 2024). U.S. quarterly soybean stocks as of Dec. 1 are 3.25 billion bu. (3.10 billion on Dec. 1, 2024). U.S. wheat stocks as of Dec. 1 are seen at 1.636 billion bu. (1.573 billion on Dec. 1, 2024).
--2025-26 marketing year ending stocks for U.S. wheat are seen at 896 million bu. (901 million in the December report). U.S. corn stocks are seen at 1.972 billion bu. (2.029 billion bu. in the December report). U.S. soybean stocks are seen at 292 million bu. (290 million in the December report).
--The 2025-26 Argentine corn crop is seen at 53.63 million MT (53.0 million MT in the December report). Argentina’s 2025-26 soybean crop is seen at 48.53 million MT (48.50 million MT in the December report).
--The 2025-26 Brazilian corn crop is seen at 132.46 million MT (131.00 million MT in the December report). Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean crop is seen at 176.35 million MT (175.0 million MT in the December report).
--2025-26 global ending stocks for wheat are seen at 275.95 million MT (274.87 million MT in the December report). 2025-26 global ending stocks for corn are seen at 279.62 million MT (279.15 million MT in the December report). 2025-26 global ending stocks for soybeans are seen at 123.07 million MT (122.37 million MT in the December report).
--U.S. all wheat planted acres for harvest in 2026 is seen at 32.413 million (33.153 million in 2025).
Malaysian palm oil futures post third straight session of gains… Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a third straight session on Friday, trading near MYR 4,080 per MT and set for weekly gains of about 2%. Support came from a weaker ringgit, firmer rival edible oil markets in Dalian and Chicago markets, and growing expectations of stronger demand ahead of the Lunar New Year and Ramadan in February. In Indonesia, officials signaled a likely hike in palm oil export levies to fund the biodiesel mandate, a move that could curb export availability from the world’s top producer. In China, the key buyer, consumer prices rose further while producer price deflation eased, reinforcing signs that stimulus measures are beginning to lift demand. Still, gains were capped by caution ahead of December data from Malaysia’s industry regulator due Monday, with inventories expected to hit multi-year highs. Meanwhile, palm oil imports in top buyer India fell to an eight-month low in December on softer winter consumption and greater substitution toward competing oils.
Cattle futures bulls still snorting… February live cattle on Thursday rose 75 cents to $235.275. March feeder cattle gained $2.225 to $357.725. The cattle futures markets saw more technical buying strength as prices are trending higher and this week have hit a 10-week high. Beef packer margins that are presently in the red did somewhat limit buying interest in live cattle futures. However, the overall supply and demand balance is firmly tilted to the bullish camp, amid historically tight supplies of cattle on U.S. feedlots and Mexican cattle banned from entering the U.S. due to the New World Screwworm parasite. USDA Thursday reported very light cash cattle trading taking place so far this week, with steers fetching an average price of $228.60 and heifers $232.00. Last week’s average cash cattle trade was at $231.68.
Hog futures gain on chart-based buying… February lean hogs on Thursday rose $1.075 to $85.875. Lean hog futures saw technical buying interest as prices are trending up and near the recent 2.5-month high. Seasonal factors suggest hog slaughter levels will decline into spring, which is price-friendly for the cash hog and lean hog futures markets for the next few months. The February lean hog futures contract is above the latest CME lean hog index, which is also bullish for futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down 29 cents to $81.25. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 27 cents at $80.98.