The Purdue University - CME Ag Economy Barometer released Tuesday saw a modest pickup in farmer sentiment in February, though respondents were still downbeat about the future.
The farmer sentiment index increased from 113 in January to 116 in February. Sentiment regarding current conditions rebounded by 11 points, while sentiment regarding future expectations continued to decline, falling 1 point to 114. That’s 45 points lower than last year’s February index, reaching its lowest level since September 2024 (see chart below).
Among the findings:
- The percentage of producers who expected bad times in February was 48%, double the share reported in February 2025.
- There was a large disparity in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 63% of respondents expected bad times for crop producers, while only 17% expected bad times for livestock producers.
- Around 50% of respondents indicated that they plan to expand their operations in the next 5 years, and 36% expect to bring another family member into the business.
- Finally, despite the prospects for upcoming payments under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, the percentage of producers who thought the U.S. was heading in the right direction has dropped from 75% in December to 59% in February.
“Overall, the February results suggest that while producers report improved current conditions, confidence in the longer-term outlook continues to weaken,” wrote Purdue’s Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi. “Although many operations are planning to expand, persistent concerns about input costs, commodity prices, and the broader direction of the U.S. economy appear to be limiting optimism about the years ahead.”