After months of relentless drought across much of farm country, meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says a major weather pattern shift is underway, and it could bring much-needed relief to some of the driest areas of the U.S. heading into summer.
Nearly 75% of the country remains in some form of drought, but Snodgrass says forecast models are signaling widespread rainfall from Texas through the Midwest and into the Southeast over the next several weeks, with some areas expected to pick up several inches of rain. And while El Niño headlines continue to fuel concerns about extreme weather and even global food shortages, Snodgrass says producers should pay closer attention to ocean temperatures off the West Coast than fear-driven forecasts circulating online.
According to Snodgrass, a strong Bermuda high is helping drive widespread precipitation from eastern Texas through the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley and Southeast over the next 10 days. He also points to a corridor stretching through the western Corn Belt into southern Canada that could finally see meaningful rainfall.
“Is it going to cure the drought? No,” Snodgrass says. “But the chances of getting rain back West is good while the upper Midwest gets a little bit of a chance to slow down and dry out.”
For producers in the South, Snodgrass says some areas could receive between four and six inches of rain in the near term.
Wetter Pattern Could Extend Into Summer
While the immediate forecast is important, Snodgrass says the bigger question is what happens deeper into summer. He says the latest European weather model keeps much of the Midwest and Eastern U.S. wetter than normal through at least early July.
“That trend goes all the way through the Fourth of July and a little bit beyond,” Snodgrass says.
As conversations around El Niño continue to dominate weather discussions, Snodgrass says producers should not focus solely on Pacific Ocean temperatures near the equator. In fact, he says El Niño historically has a weak correlation to U.S. summer weather patterns during the heart of summer.
Instead, Snodgrass says producers need to watch ocean temperatures off the West Coast and in the Gulf of Alaska.
“The ocean temperatures off the West Coast in the Northeast Pacific are a much bigger determinant of the summer weather patterns,” Snodgrass says.
He explains that colder waters in the Gulf of Alaska typically correlate with drier conditions across the Midwest and Plains. But with warmer-than-normal waters currently in place, Snodgrass says that supports a more active thunderstorm pattern and additional rainfall chances for much of the central U.S.
Heat and Drought Risks Still Linger
Despite the wetter outlook, Snodgrass says drought concerns are far from over, especially for parts of the Cotton Belt later this summer.
“This is what I think the summer outlook could look like with a warm Northeast Pacific and a building El Niño,” Snodgrass says. “And yes, it does mean some Cotton Belt drought risk despite all the rains coming in there right now.”
Snodgrass says he expects the Northwest to remain the primary hotspot for heat and drought this summer, while much of the Midwest could trend cooler with more storm activity than average.
The latest outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center paints a similar picture with much of the southern and western U.S. expected to trend warmer than normal this summer, while parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes could see cooler or near-normal temperatures.
On the precipitation side, the CPC outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across portions of the eastern U.S., Gulf Coast and parts of the Southwest, while drier-than-normal weather is expected across the Pacific Northwest, Rockies and portions of the central Plains.
The outlook also reflects increasing confidence that El Niño could develop later this summer and persist into the end of the year.
What About the ‘Super El Niño’ Famine Headlines?
Snodgrass also addressed recent headlines warning a potential “super El Niño” could trigger a global famine.
“You’ve got to remember that super El Niño forecast is referencing an El Niño event which happened more than a century ago,” Snodgrass says.
While he says drought risks in Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea and India are legitimate concerns—especially given the population concentrated in those regions—he cautions against sensational predictions.
“My biggest concerns with any El Niño are drought in Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and the Indian monsoon being weak,” Snodgrass says. “So yes, drought could be a major factor in that area, but global famine, I’m not so sure of.”
Snodgrass says portions of Central America, Mexico and the Caribbean could also face drier conditions later in the season, particularly if hurricane activity trends below normal.
Still, he says producers should take a measured approach when evaluating some of the more dramatic headlines circulating online.
“I would take a bit more measured view of that,” Snodgrass says, noting modern infrastructure and agricultural systems are far different than they were a century ago.