Drought
NOAA and CPC issue an official El Niño watch with a 62% chance of forming by late summer. Meteorologist Drew Lerner explains why it’s coming sooner than expected, but warns the extreme forecasts may be overstated. What it could mean for global crops this year.
A wet, active weather pattern across the Eastern Corn Belt could delay early planting this spring. Meteorologist Matt Griffin says repeated rain events through March and April may keep fields too saturated for fieldwork east of Iowa.
As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing
Pacific waters are warming rapidly as La Niña fades. Meteorologists warn the shift could reshape U.S. rainfall, drought conditions and severe weather risk during the 2026 growing season.
After a dry, unusually warm January, key Western river basins are in severe snow drought. With irrigation allocations at 0%, one Colorado producer warns tough planting decisions could reshape this year’s crop mix.
How quickly will La Niña exit this year, and when will El Niño enter the picture? Not all meteorologists agree with NOAA or one another, but the timing could have a major impact on weather this spring and summer.
2026 Weather Outlook: La Niña’s Quick Exit, El Niño’s Potential and the Signals Farmers Should Watch
Meteorologists predict a quick La Niña exit, with a 75% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral by Jan-March. Expect neutral conditions to persist through at least late spring with a growing chance of El Niño in 2026.
Ratings remain more mixed further inland
USDA Under Secretary Richard Fordyce says USDA’s new phase of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program expands eligibility, requires in-person enrollment and targets losses from the 2023 and 2024 weather disasters.
Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe says a strong ridge is keeping much of the U.S. warm and dry through mid-November, extending drought across key farm regions, but a pattern shift may bring some relief, and possibly even snow.
October is a big month for barge transportation on the Mississippi River, but restrictions are in place and the weather forecast shows little promise for improving water levels.