GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat gapped lower to start the overnight session but did see some strength going into the break. Peace prospects in the Middle East weighed on prices despite the conflict seemingly ramping up. Front-month crude oil futures are trading lower this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 125 points lower.
U.S. and Iranian forces clashed near the Strait of Hormuz overnight, highlighting the tension between the two sides even as they tout progress toward an interim peace deal. The U.S. military said it conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile-launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it fired at an F-35 fighter jet and several drones. Meantime, President Trump said negotiations with Iran over an interim deal to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz were “proceeding nicely.” An Iranian delegation traveled to Doha for consultations with senior Qatari officials on the negotiations, including discussions on the release of frozen Iranian funds. The U.S. and Iran still need to finalize key details, including whether ships transiting the Hormuz Strait will be allowed free passage and how quickly billions of dollars of Iranian funds will be unfrozen.
“As Kevin Warsh takes the helm at the Federal Reserve, bond investors are betting he’ll prioritize the central bank’s inflation-fighting credibility over President Donald Trump’s push for lower interest rates. With the Iran war unleashing the biggest inflation surge since 2023, traders are pricing in that the Fed is virtually certain to start raising rates by December. That’s a sharp reversal from just three months ago, when markets were betting there were deeper cuts ahead,” said a Bloomberg report on Monday. “The shift reflects the impact of turmoil in the Middle East, the resilient U.S. economy and an AI-investment boom pushing the stock market higher, all of which have fueled concerns that inflation could remain stuck above the Fed’s 2% target for some time,” said the report. However, Kevin Hassett, President Trump’s chief economic adviser at the White House, signaled he’s confident that an eventual drop in oil prices will create space for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The White House expects energy prices to drop once there’s a deal with Iran, Hassett said on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures.
CORN: July corn futures fell below 200-day moving average support overnight. Support stands at the May 15 low of $4.55. Resistance stands at the 200-day moving average at $4.60 3/4 then $4.62 3/4 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures are trading below the 40-day moving average at $11.93 1/4. That remains a key technical benchmark today. Support comes in at $11.77 on additional selling. Resistance stands at $11.99 on a push higher.
WHEAT: July SRW wheat favored the downside overnight. Bulls are looking to hold support at the overnight low of $6.36. Resistance stands at the 20-day moving average at $6.43 then $6.49 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by technical support at the 40-day moving average. A moderately bearish Cattle on Feed report could limit strength though. USDA Friday afternoon reported cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on May 1, 2026. The inventory was 2 percent above May 1, 2025 and slightly higher than market expectations. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.70 million head, 6 percent above 2025 and well above market expectations. Cash cattle trade last week was poised to challenge the prior week’s record, but late week weakness undercut early gains.
HOGS: Hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Friday’s strength. Futures are still oversold on the daily bar chart, which could incite additional profit-taking. The CME lean hog index continues to struggle garnering much bullish momentum, as it slid another 19 cents to $90.88 as of May 21. Pork cutout rose 62 cents to $96.26 Friday, led by gains in ribs.