As March begins, most of the U.S. winter wheat crop looks to exit dormancy and start it’s spring vegetative phase. USDA released March 1 condition ratings on Monday, reflecting a winter wheat crop that saw some deterioration over the past month.
Conditions in the Good to Excellent category saw a 22% net decline across all states compared to the Feb. 1 ratings, with Colorado noting the sharpest month-over-month decline of 18%. The monthly reports that cover December through March measure the average condition of the crop each month, as opposed to the more consistent weekly reports that are published from early April through November.
Historically low snowpack levels across the Rockies, and more generally across the Mountain West, led to worrisomely low soil moisture levels while the crop was over-wintering. The states composing the northern Rockies, such as Montana and Wyoming, also rely on snow to insulate the winter wheat crop from harsh cold temperatures. The USDA-NASS Montana state office noted particularly poor snow cover for the crop was available in their February report, although exact impacts of this won’t be measured until later in the season. The lack of snowfall will also be felt into the spring thaw and will likely cause some further crop and livestock stress as streams and groundwater miss out on their usual seasonal replenishment source.
While Colorado saw the sharpest decline from month-ago levels in the Good to Excellent categories, it is not the lowest overall. Condition ratings remain lower in six other states, including two of the largest winter wheat producers: Texas and Oklahoma, which sit at 16 and 19% respectively. Drought has plagued the southern Plains and is the primary factor in production concerns at this time. Warmer than usual temperatures, dry weather patterns, and high winds all worked in combination to zap soil moisture levels, resulting in wildfire outbreaks in the western portions of Oklahoma.
While crop yields are influenced by numerous factors and are difficult to estimate, current moisture levels in the heart of winter wheat country and less acres planted point to a potential easing of the balance sheet in the coming crop year. USDA will offer more detailed, state-level crop weather recaps in their State Stories report scheduled for release Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. CT.
