According to the May survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) is below growth neutral for the fourth straight month.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for May dropped to 45.7 from April’s 47.9. This marks the 15th time since January 2025 the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community. Approximately, 47.8% of bankers report the financial position of farmers in their area deteriorated in 2026 from 2025,” says Creighton University’s Dr. Ernie Goss, who conducts the survey.
Farming and ranchland prices: After three straight months of falling farm and ranchland values, the region’s price index for May rose to a tepid 50.1 from 48.0 in April. “Though farm and ranchland values have held up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have restrained farmland values,” states Goss.
Farm equipment sales: The May farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 18.2 from April’s 26.1. This is the 33rd straight month it has fallen below growth neutral.
“The war in Iran has added volatility to an already-pressured agricultural sector, with rising input costs squeezing farmer operating margins, dampening equipment sales and reshaping planting decisions heading into the season,” Goss notes.
Banking: The May loan volume index rose to a strong 67.4 from 65.2 in April. The checking deposit index fell to 54.3 from 60.9 in April. The region’s index for certificates of deposits (CDs) increased to 60.9 from 56.5 in April.
Larry Winum, CEO of Glenwood State Bank in Glenwood, Iowa, states: “The U.S. national debt will most likely exceed $40 trillion before the end of the year. For the first time since World War II, it will be larger than the U.S. economy (over 100% of GDP.” He singled out this issue as the single biggest economic threat to the future of the U.S., Goss notes.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The May economic confidence index slumped to 34.8 from 39.1 in April. “In spite of the potential for year-round E-15 ethanol sales, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continue to weigh on banker confidence,” observes Goss.
The RMI is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. It provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy, Creighton University states.