Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were 2 to 5 cents lower, winter wheat futures were half a cent to 6 cents higher, spring wheat was mostly 5 cents higher and cotton was 90 to 110 points higher.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 4 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are 5 to 9 cents lower, SRW wheat is unchanged to a penny lower, HRW wheat is 1 to 5 cents higher, HRS wheat is around 1 to 2 cents higher and cotton is 90 to 120 points higher.
Winter wheat production
All wheat: 1.543 billion bu.; trade expected 1.554 billion bu.— compares with 1.561 billion bu. in May; 1.985 billion bu. in 2025
All winter wheat: 1.029 billion bu.; trade expected 1.041 billion bu.— compares with 1.048 billion bu. in May; 1.401 billion bu. in 2025
HRW: 497 million bu.; trade expected 508 million bu.— compares with 515 million bu. in May; 804 million bu. in 2025
SRW: 300 million bu.; trade expected 302 million bu.— compares with 301 million bu. in May; 352 million bu. in 2025
White winter: 233 million bu.; trade expected 231 million bu.— compares with 232 million bu. in May; 283 million bu. in 2025
USDA lowered its winter wheat production estimate from last month, cutting red winter wheat and raising white winter wheat production slightly. USDA kept its estimates for harvested area unchanged at 22.015 million acres, leaving the decline to be attributed entirely to reducing yield 0.8 bushels to 46.8 bushels per acre.
USDA estimated production at 497 million bu. for HRW (down 18 million bu. from last month), 300 million bu. for SRW (down 1 million bu.) and 233 million bu. for white winter (up 1 million bu.).
The all-wheat crop projection implies spring wheat production of 514 million bu. between other spring wheat and durum, up 1 million bu. from last month. USDA’s first survey-based all-wheat production estimate will be released in July.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.145 billion bu. for 2025-26, up from 2.142 billion bu. in May— 1.960 billion bu. for 2026-27, up from 1.957 billion bu. in May
Beans: 340 million bu. for 2025-26, unchanged from 340 million bu. in May— 310 million bu. for 2026-27, unchanged from 310 million bu. in May
Wheat: 935 million bu. for 2025-26, unchanged from 935 million bu. in May— 744 million bu. for 2026-27, down from 762 million bu. in May
Cotton: 4.2 million bales for 2025-26, down from 4.4 million bales in May— 3.7 million bales for 2026-27, down from 3.9 million bales in May
USDA increased old-crop corn imports by 3 million bushels, cut ethanol use and lifted exports by the same amount (25 million bushels), ultimately leading to a net increase of 3 million bushels to ending stocks to 2.145 billion bushels, 8 million bu. above pre-report expectations. USDA’s 2026-27 corn outlook is virtually unchanged relative to last month. Fractionally higher beginning and ending stocks for 2026-27 reflect changes to the old-crop balance sheet. The 2026-27 season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.
USDA’s 2025-26 soybean carryover is unchanged from May and just 1 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut old-crop exports by 20 million bushels and increased crush use by the same amount. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2025-26 at $10.40, unchanged from May.
For 2026-27 soybeans, USDA made no changes, keeping carryover at 310 million bushels. Ending stocks are 1 million bu. below trade expectations. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2026-27 at $11.40, unchanged from last month.
USDA’s 2025-26 wheat balance sheet is unchanged from the prior month but did increase it’s average farm price a nickel to $5.05. The U.S. wheat outlook for 2026-27 projects smaller supplies and, with no other changes to the balance sheet, lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on decreased output as all wheat production is projected at 1,543 million bushels, down 18 million from last month largely on smaller Hard Red Winter wheat production. The all wheat yield is down 0.5 bushels per acre to 47.0 bushels. Exports are unchanged at 775 million bushels, down 15 percent from the prior year. Projected ending stocks are reduced 18 million bushels to 744 million, 20 million bushels below the average trade estimate. The 2026-27 season average farm price is projected $0.50 per bushel lower this month to $6.00 based on expectations of futures and cash prices for the marketing year.
USDA’s 2025-26 cotton carryover estimate is down 200,000 bales from last month. USDA made no change to the supply-side of the cotton balance sheet. It increased estimated exports 200,000 bales (to 12.2 million) and cut domestic use 50,000 bales (to 1.55 million), accounting for the cut to ending stocks. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 63 cents, unchanged from May.
The 2026-27 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows reduced beginning and ending stocks, due to a 200,000-bale decrease from the previous year. Production, consumption, and trade forecasts are unchanged this month, and the projected season-average price remains at 73 cents per pound. As a result, ending stocks are now forecast at 4.20 million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 31 percent. The 2025/26 season-average farm price remains estimated at 63 cents per pound.
Global carryover
Corn: 303.36 MMT for 2025-26, up from 296.95 MMT in May— 281.22 MMT for 2026-27, up from 277.54 MMT in May
Beans: 125.52 MMT for 2025-26, up from 125.13 MMT in May— 124.88 MMT for 2026-27, up from 124.78 MMT in May
Wheat: 279.95 MMT for 2025-26, up from 279.21 MMT in May— 275.42 MMT for 2026-27, up from 275.04 MMT in May
Cotton: 76.63 million bales for 2025-26, down from 77.27 million bales in May— 71.13 million bales for 2026-27, down from 71.84 million bales in May
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 48.0 MMT in May— 50.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 50.0 MMT in May
Brazil beans: 180.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 180.0 MMT in May— 186.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 186.0 MMT in May
Argentina wheat: 27.92 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 27.92 MMT in May— 21.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 21.0 MMT in May
Australia wheat: 35.99 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 36.0 MMT in May— 28.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 30.0 MMT in May
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 140.07 MMT in May— 141.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 141.0 MMT in May
Canada wheat: 39.96 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 39.96 MMT in May— 35.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 35.0 MMT in May
EU wheat: 145.11 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 145.11 MMT in May— 136.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 136.0 MMT in May
Russia wheat: 90.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 90.3 MMT in May— 88.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 86.0 MMT in May
Ukraine wheat: 24.1 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 24.1 MMT in May— 23.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 23.0 MMT in May
China corn: 307.00 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 307.00 MMT in May— 295.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 301.24 MMT in May
Argentina corn: 61.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 59.0 MMT in May— 55.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 55.0 MMT in May
Brazil corn: 138.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 135.0 MMT in May— 139.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 139.0 MMT in May
Ukraine corn: 30.9 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 30.9 MMT in May— 30.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 30.0 MMT in May
South Africa corn: 17.7 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 17.7 MMT in May— 16.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 16.5 MMT in May
China cotton: 35.8 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 35.8 mil. bales in May— 33.5 mil. bales for 2026-27, compares with 33.5 mil. bales in May