GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents lower
Wheat: 4 to 6 cents lower
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Grains traded lower in the overnight session with soybeans leading the way down. Markets should see a return to higher volume this week following the Christmas holiday. Outside markets offer a mixed outlook for price action in commodities today, with the dollar index slightly firmer and crude oil prices also up this morning.
President Trump said he made “a lot of progress” in talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday over a possible peace deal, but that it might take a few weeks to get it done. Zelenskiy said the peace framework is “90% agreed” and that U.S.-Ukraine security guarantees are “100% agreed,” but major sticking points remain, including the future of Ukraine’s Donbas region. Trump said he would be willing to speak to Ukraine’s parliament or hold a trilateral meeting with Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and that he aims to convene a meeting with Zelenskiy and European leaders in January. The tone of the Trump-Zelenskiy news conference after the meeting in Florida was warm, even as it became clear that Trump isn’t much closer to his goal of ending the war that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The National Weather Service today said an intense cyclone across the northern tier of the country has produced heavy snow and blizzard conditions across the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes, freezing rain across New England, a quick round of heavy rain and thunderstorms through the eastern U.S. and across the South, as well as widespread blustery winds to locally damaging winds to these areas. As this system reaches peak intensity early this morning, blizzard conditions can be expected, especially over the central Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain will spread quickly through New England. Snowfall amounts are expected to well exceed a foot across the upper Great Lakes. The storm center is forecast to move relatively quickly into southeastern Canada. For the lower Great Lakes, rain showers associated with the potent cold front early this morning will change over to lake-effect snows during the day. These lake-effect snows are expected to linger through Wednesday morning (and beyond) as an Alberta clipper brings a round of light snow across the upper Midwest on Tuesday, spreading into much of the Great Lakes by Tuesday evening. Winter precipitation aside, the Arctic cold front sweeping south will bring a drastic end to the recent record warm spell across the central U.S. to the South. High temperatures today will be 30 to 40 degrees colder than yesterday across much of the nation’s midsection. The tail end of the Arctic front across southeastern New Mexico and Southwest Texas will bring accumulating snow with local blizzard conditions and could bring locally more than 6 inches of snowfall.
China’s offshore yuan currency weakened to around 7 per U.S. dollar on Monday, easing from a fifteen-month high as investors turned cautious amid China’s central bank efforts to temper rapid one-way moves. The People’s Bank of China set a slightly softer-than-expected midpoint, signaling its intent to rein in excess yuan strength, while state-run media cautioned against betting on unilateral appreciation. Analysts also noted that seasonal foreign exchange flows and rising demand have supported the yuan’s broad uptrend, but appreciation pressure is expected to ease once year-end settlements conclude. Despite short-term caution, global investors continue to expect the yuan’s momentum to persist into 2026, with the key 7 level likely to be tested again, even as authorities reaffirm their commitment to maintaining currency stability. The yuan has gained more than 4.1% against the U.S. dollar so far this year and is on track to log the biggest annual rise since 2020. TradingEconomics.com
CORN: March corn ended last week at the psychological $4.50 mark and has fallen lower in overnight trade, indicating the level remains as key resistance. Corn finds support at the 40-day moving average of $4.44 and the 100-day moving average of $4.42 1/2.
SOYBEANS: March soybeans are continuing to face pressure from a large South American crop. The contract saw an outside day to the upside on Christmas Eve amid light volume but remains mostly trapped in a daily downtrend. The contract sees resistance at the 10-day moving average of $10.74 1/4 with support in the psychological $10.60 area.
WHEAT: March SRW futures are seeing recent strength begin to wane. The contract notched five days of gains before closing lower on Friday and opening overnight trade lower as well. Support lies at last week’s low of $5.11, with firmer support at $5.00. Key resistance will be the $5.25 mark, and then the 40-day moving average of $5.29 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher
HOGS: Choppy
CATTLE: Cattle futures have begun to trade more sideways lately after a strong uptrend from late November to mid-December. Tight supplies and cash trade that has stabilized somewhat recently continue to underpin the market. However recent declines in boxed beef values may limit the upside in the short-term. On Friday USDA reported Choice cutout values at $351.21, down $10.42 from the same time a week prior.
HOGS: Lean hog futures saw a down day on Friday, the first full day of trading after the holiday and the most recent USDA Hogs and Pigs report. Hogs are likely to continue to face some resistance as the herd increased while most analysts generally expected a move to the downside. Hogs will however see some support from recent strength in the contract.