Editor’s note: Markets will be closed Thursday for the New Year’s Day holiday. Pro Farmer will be observing an abbreviated schedule on Wednesday and Friday, publishing First Thing Today (8:00 a.m. CT) and After the Bell (Post-close). We will resume our regular publishing schedule on Monday, Jan. 5.
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher
Soybeans: 1 to 5 cents higher
Wheat: 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Grains were mostly steady to slightly higher in the overnight session, with soybeans notching the most gains. Outside markets look supportive for grain futures today. The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer this morning with crude oil also trading marginally higher from yesterday around $58.36. Geopolitical tensions continue to impact markets this week with developments in the Black Sea and Venezuela ongoing.
USDA this morning reported export sales of 136,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China in the 2025/26 marketing year. An additional 231,000 MT of soybeans were also sold for delivery to unknown destinations in the current marketing year.
China has called for a new model for its engagement with the U.S., seeking to cement a recent thaw with the Trump administration while reinforcing its red line on Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed “a new paradigm of positive interaction” with Washington, but reiterated Beijing’s opposition to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and the importance of the “reunification of Taiwan.” Beijing’s calls for more stable U.S. ties build on a one-year trade truce struck with Washington, with diplomatic momentum expected to build through 2026, including visits by Trump to China and Xi to the U.S. “We will promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations,” Yi said in a speech at a symposium about foreign relations on Tuesday. He added that China will remain engaged with the U.S. on the basis of mutual respect but will not “yield an inch” on core interests, Bloomberg reported.
President Trump’s campaign to end the war in Ukraine faced new complications when Russian President Putin said he would revise his country’s negotiating position after claiming Ukrainian drones targeted his residence. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy dismissed the Russian claims as a “new lie” and warned that Moscow could be using it as an excuse to prepare an attack on government buildings in Kyiv. Putin told Trump that Moscow intends to work closely with the U.S. on peace efforts but would reconsider previously reached agreements, and the two leaders agreed to maintain their dialogue. Putin told Trump of his decision in a call Monday, according to the Kremlin, even as Kyiv cast the Russian allegations as a fabrication aimed at derailing the peace process. Trump addressed the dispute while speaking to reporters in Florida, saying that Putin had told him about the purported attack during their discussion. Bloomberg
CORN: March corn looks to continue its sideways trading range today. Export sales and inspections remain strong but have not been enough to lift corn out of its established range at this time. USDA’s January update to their production estimate will be the next major report for corn futures. Corn finds support at $4.40 and sees first resistance at last Friday’s $4.50 close.
SOYBEANS: March soybeans look to claw back some of the losses from yesterday’s risk-off day in the commodity markets. Early harvest of soybeans has begun in very limited portions of Brazil, although the bulk of harvest is still weeks away for most farmers in the country. Initial resistance is at the 10-day moving average of $10.74 1/4 with support in the area of last week’s low of $10.57 1/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures are seeing buying interest in the overnight after consecutive sessions of losses. A collapse in progress towards a peace deal after Russia claimed Ukraine attacked Putin’s personal residence is a bullish factor for wheat futures. Support lies at last week’s low of $5.11, with firmer support down at $5.00. Initial resistance is at the $5.25 mark, and then the 40-day moving average of $5.28 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher
HOGS: Choppy
CATTLE: Cattle futures saw mixed trade yesterday, with nearby live cattle seeing losses and nearby feeders gaining. Despite recent trade being more mixed, a weak uptrend is still in place on the daily chart. Reports of firming cash trade yesterday should help to keep the daily price uptrends alive. USDA reported weekly cash cattle trade last week at $229.33, up $1.36 from the week prior.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to continue in a choppy pattern of trade after the Christmas holiday as gains in cash values seem to be plateauing and total hog inventories were reported higher than expected. Nearby futures are trading at a premium to the lean hog index, which is one positive sign for the market. The most recent lean hog index is up 13 cents to $83.84.