GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 6 to 8 cents higher; HRS 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains favored the upside overnight but continue to trade near recent lows. Corn is working higher for the second consecutive session. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 350 points, giving up a portion of recent gains.
USDA reported daily export sales of 120,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
USDA on Monday confirmed three more cases of New World screwworm in the U.S. on Monday: a calf in Lasalle County, Texas; a goat in Gillespie County, Texas; and a dog in Lea County, New Mexico. The dog was originally announced by USDA as occurring in Andrews County, Texas. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins told Politico that it isn’t clear how the New World screwworm outbreak will affect beef prices, which have already soared due to strong demand and the shrinking of the cattle herd to its smallest in seven decades. New USDA limits on livestock transportation around the affected region have also sparked concern among industry representatives about getting cattle to market, the report said. “So we’re going to look at a lower tonnage of beef and higher input costs,” said Cooper Little, director of the Independent Cattlemen’s Association of Texas. “Which can keep beef prices on that sharp upward trajectory.” But Ethan Lane, senior vice president of government affairs at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, told Politico the impact at the grocery store is “negligible.”
President Trump said there is momentum toward ending the conflict with Iran after a halt to hostilities between Israel and Iran. Iran and Israel agreed to halt strikes on each other following a flare-up that saw both countries launch waves of ballistic missiles, with a ceasefire in place for about two months. Trump told reporters that “we’re in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal” and that they “could have at least an idea one or two days from now” about the deal.
Pro Farmer Editor Bill Watts reported late Monday that “it was nothing less than a brutal week for the grain and soy markets last week” and that “fund liquidation was the fuel, as Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed large speculators exiting long positions built up in the earlier days of the Iran war en masse.” Last Friday’s report, which reflected positions as of one week ago today, marked the biggest weekly bear move on record for Chicago SRW wheat futures and options, according to Barchart. The CFTC COT data showed managed money adding 39,165 contracts to their net short, at 57,781 contracts. Kansas City HRW wheat futures and options saw speculators reduce their net long position by 13,393 contracts, to 13,477 contracts. Ole Hansen, head of global commodity research at Saxo Bank, said that since hitting a four-year high last month, the combined net long across 13 major agricultural futures contracts has almost halved, driven primarily by a two-thirds reduction in bullish positions across corn, soybeans, and wheat--and led by corn.
CORN: July corn futures are working higher for the second consecutive session. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $4.25 on continued strength. Support comes in at $4.17 1/2 then $4.12 1/2 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures are trading near recent lows. Prices have closed lower seven sessions in a row. Support comes in at $11.11 then $11.00 on persistent selling. Resistance stands at $11.25 on a bounce.
WHEAT: July SRW wheat are favoring the upside in overnight trade. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.94 on continued strength. Support comes in at $5.85 then yesterday’s low of $5.74 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to remain choppy as headline risk continues to drive price action. An extension of yesterday’s sell-off seems likely, but nearby futures remain a steep discount to the cash market. Last week, cash cattle averaged $256.53, down 33 cents from the previous week. Choice beef fell 50 cents to $392.20 Monday and continues to trend sideways.
HOGS: Hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on corrective buying. July lean hogs hit a fresh for-the-move low on Monday but are in the lower end of the recent range, which could spur profit-taking. The CME lean hog index is up 3 cents to $92.63 as of June 5. Pork cutout slid $2.72 to $98.46 Monday, largely due to a $13.58 plunge in butts.