USDA will release the latest updates to its balance sheets on Thursday, but a pre-report poll of analysts indicate little change is expected across crops.
The June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is due for release at 11 a.m. CT Thursday. It is expected to include modest changes to the old-crop balance sheet as well as any changes to expectations for new-crop demand. While there is precedent for USDA to adjust production in the June report, it is uncommon, and given the lack of challenges the crop has seen so far this year, an adjustment to production is unlikely.
Below is a table of pre-report expectations from a poll done by Reuters, with our comments:
USDA 2025-26 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
| Average analyst estimate | Range of estimates | USDA May estimates | |
| Wheat | 0.942 | 0.924-0.985 | 0.935 |
| Corn | 2.138 | 2.087-2.297 | 2.142 |
| Soybeans | 0.338 | 0.320-0.365 | 0.340 |
Export data for wheat indicated shipments slowed in the final month of the marketing year, encouraging analysts to lift their ending stock forecasts for old-crop. USDA could lower the soybean export estimate as well due to relatively weak shipments and sales with just a couple months left in the marketing year. Corn exports are unlikely to see much change as recent data indicates USDA’s previous estimate is reasonable.
USDA 2026-27 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
| Average analyst estimate | Range of estimates | USDA May estimates | |
| Wheat | 0.765 | 0.740-0.804 | 0.762 |
| Corn | 1.947 | 1.847-2.119 | 1.957 |
| Soybeans | 0.312 | 0.293-0.342 | 0.310 |
The lack of change for new-crop from USDA’s previous estimate indicates a wait and see approach. USDA is unlikely to change production at this juncture and recent data on demand shows little reason to shift prior assumptions.
USDA 2026-27 world grain and soybean ending stocks
| Average analyst estimate | Range of estimates | USDA May estimates | |
| Wheat | 274.66 | 272.30-276.80 | 275.04 |
| Corn | 278.51 | 275.00-281.00 | 277.54 |
| Soybeans | 125.28 | 124.00-127.00 | 124.78 |
USDA 2026-27 U.S. wheat production
| Average analyst estimate | Range of estimates | USDA May estimates | |
| All wheat | 1.555 | 1.525-1.603 | 1.561 |
| All winter | 1.041 | 1.020-1.071 | 1.048 |
| Hard red winter | 0.508 | 0.485-0.525 | 0.515 |
| Soft red winter | 0.303 | 0.295-0.315 | 0.301 |
| White winter | 0.231 | 0.228-0.235 | 0.232 |
Our estimate for winter wheat production is in line with the average estimate from the survey of analysts. USDA was aggressive in cutting production in the May report. Analysis of conditions paired with production indicate a modest decline is to be expected in the June Crop Production report.
USDA 2025-26 South American corn and soy production
| Average analyst estimates | Range of estimates | USDA May estimates | |
| ARGENTINA | |||
| Corn | 61.11 | 60.00-63.00 | 59.00 |
| Soybeans | 48.62 | 48.00-50.00 | 48.00 |
| BRAZIL | |||
| Corn | 135.70 | 134.00-137.00 | 135.00 |
| Soybeans | 180.34 | 180.00-182.00 | 180.00 |
Markets have shifted significantly since the May reports despite little change on the fundamental side of the market. A catalyst in the grain markets, however small it may be, could be what the market needs. How prices respond to end the week will be telling to see if the downside is overdone.