GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat favored the downside overnight amid ongoing concerns about what Chinese demand could look like. Front-month crude oil futures are favoring the downside this morning but are trading near recent highs. The U.S. dollar index is modestly higher, continuing to be supported by higher long-dated treasury yields.
In a statement today, China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed there had been a “guiding target” set between the two countries with the goal of “expanding two-way agricultural trade,” but made no mention of the U.S. government’s claimed $17 billion number for U.S. ag product purchases from China, Bloomberg reported overnight. “With no official confirmation of the figure yet from the Chinese government, lingering concerns about the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing” are putting some downward pressure on grain prices, said Tobin Gorey, a strategist at Cornucopia Agri Analytics. “You can make promises about we’ll buy this, we’ll buy that, and it’s helpful. But people want to see it,” he said in the Bloomberg report.
President Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran in the coming days as part of the push for a deal to end the war, according to Bloomberg. “I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. When asked how long he would wait, he said: “Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week — a limited period of time.” Meantime, the Republican-led U.S. Senate signaled opposition to continuing the war with a procedural vote on Tuesday evening that reflected deepening unease over a foreign conflict. Vice President JD Vance projected a slightly more positive tone on the negotiations, saying “we think that we’ve made a lot of progress; we think the Iranians want to make a deal,” but also threatened a resumption of strikes.
The Department of Agriculture will revive and expand a Biden administration program to boost U.S. fertilizer production, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Tuesday, according to Politico. At a news conference with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Rollins said USDA will shift the fertilizer program away from the prior administration’s focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. “Those projects that were stalled because of climate requirements are now coming back online,” Rollins said. The Biden administration designed the program to address price shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as to encourage production of fertilizer with lower carbon emissions. Rollins said “every tool in the toolkit has to be reviewed and analyzed.” She said the permitting process for a new ammonia plant, the Blue Point Project being built in Louisiana, could be finalized within 45 days through the Army Corps of Engineers. The plant is scheduled to be operational in 2029.
CORN: July corn futures are trading near 40-day moving average support at $4.68 1/4. Additional selling finds support at $4.64. Resistance comes in at $4.72 then $4.75 on a reversal higher.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures are trading near 20-day moving average support at $12.01, which is quickly reinforced by the psychological $12.00 mark. Resistance stands at yesterday’s high of $12.20 3/4 on resurgent strength.
WHEAT: July SRW wheat saw modest selling overnight. Bulls are looking to hold support at $6.60 then $6.53 3/4 on persistent selling. Resistance comes in at $6.75 on a turn back higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid persistent strength in cash fundamentals. Futures have stalled near recent highs and bulls are looking to break out of the ongoing consolidative range. The big discounts in futures will limit much further downside. Choice beef rose $3.61 to $395.75 Tuesday. Even with the recent push in choice beef, packer margins remain deep in the red.
HOGS: Hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of Tuesday’s technical breakdown. Futures broke to fresh lows amid the persistent selling in the cash market. While the CME lean hog index is up a nickel to $90.55, it remains near recent lows. Pork cutout slid $1.48 to $96.88 Tuesday, led by losses in bellies and loins.