A White House fact sheet and encouraging remarks from China’s commerce ministry helped dispel the gloom that had enveloped grain and soy complex futures last week following President Donald Trump’s summit meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The White House fact sheet released Sunday said China had committed to buying $17 billion of agricultural goods for the next three years, albeit with 2026 on a prorated basis. Crucially, that’s in addition to the 25 million metric tons of soybeans that the Trump administration has said China is committed to over the next three years. Assuming around $10 billion for those soybean purchases (at around $11 a bushel) and it comes to around $27 billion a year (notwithstanding the prorated amount for 2026).
Steep losses on Thursday and Friday left July corn down 16 1/2 cents for the week and soybeans down 31 cents, with both hitting three-week lows after rallying in the wake of Tuesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from USDA. The declines put recent uptrends in jeopardy, setting up Monday as an important trading session. The rebound saw July corn jump 21 1/4 cents, while July soybeans advanced 36 cents to take back last week’s decline.
Exports to China fell to $8.4 billion in 2025 amid the trade war, according to Foreign Agricultural Service numbers, down from $24.4 billion in 2024, $28.8 billion in 2023 and the peak at $38 billion in 2022. It puts the total near the recent average and is obviously a big improvement from 2025 (see chart below). While the mix is left open, the figure is big enough to give corn and wheat bulls confidence an upgrade in Chinese purchases is likely in store.
Just as China has never publicly affirmed the 25 million MT soybean purchase figure, Beijing hasn’t specifically acknowledged the figures in the White House fact sheet. But China did follow through on purchases of 12 million MT that the U.S. said it had committed to in the wake of Trump and Xi’s meeting in South Korea last fall, which gives traders confidence in the new rounds of purchases — at least for now. It’s safe to say that China’s recent record when it comes to following through on trade agreements leaves market participants wary about putting too much faith in pledges, particularly when China hasn’t explicitly declared its commitments itself.
There’s also the potential for other issues to derail any U.S.-China understanding on agricultural trade. Taiwan, semiconductors, rare earths and, of course, the Iran war, all carry the potential to ignite diplomatic flare-ups or trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
That said, China hasn’t been completely silent. China’s commerce ministry over the weekend said said Beijing and Washington will adopt a series of measures, including mutually cutting levies on certain products, to expand bilateral trade in areas including agriculture, Bloomberg reported, noting the ministry didn’t provide specifics and said both sides are still currently negotiating over the details..
The outcome shows that both countries “can find solutions to the problems through dialog and cooperation,” the Commerce Ministry said. The Commerce Ministry reiterated that the two sides agreed to establish boards of investment and trade to discuss concerns.
That statement also helps to explain the rally as a cut to China’s 10% tariff on U.S. imports would make U.S. soybeans significantly more competitive with South America. For now, the market is enjoying a significant relief rally after last week’s overdone selloff. It’s a reason to be optimistic while remaining realistic.