Pro Farmer CCI shows wheat deterioration continuing

USDA released its weekly Crop Progress and Condition report this afternoon, showing winter wheat in 43% very poor to poor, 30% fair, and 27% good to excellent conditions. The good to excellent category was down 1% from last week and came in 1% below the average analyst estimate according to a poll conducted by Bloomberg.

Limited rainfall that occurred in the southern and central Plains last week failed to offset the loss of soil moisture that was caused by daily high temperatures touching triple digits over the weekend along the western portions of the Texas-Oklahoma border. SRW country also saw a rise in temperatures over the past week, though to a less severe degree. Rains are forecast in the eastern U.S. later this week, though exact precipitation totals remain in flux.

On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 11.39 points to 241.61. Kansas contributed the most to the decline, driven by a 7% jump in the very poor to poor ratings from last week and falling 4.73 points on the CCI. Higher very poor to poor ratings have only been observed in the nation’s top producing winter wheat state in four other years since the survey began in 1986: 1989, 1996, 2014, and 2023.

The SRW crop notched a very minor increase of 1.20 points to 365.86 due to most of the primary producing states seeing either unchanged condition ratings or marginal increases from this time a week ago.

* denotes percentage of three-year average of total national HRW crop production.

* denotes percentage of three-year average of total national SRW crop production.