GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat rebounded from early overnight session lows and found a bid going into the break. Bulls are looking to build on recent momentum and put a stop to recent selling pressure. Front-month crude oil futures bounced from Wednesday’s selling pressure as Tehran is unlikely to support the recent peace proposal. The U.S. dollar index continues to work higher, trading around 210 points higher.
Crude oil quickly erased overnight losses and rallied on news just out that Iran’s supreme leader said he does not want its enriched uranium sent abroad. That runs counter to a main U.S demand in the current peace negotiations. Iran earlier in the day said the latest proposal from the U.S. has partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, as they seek to turn a fragile ceasefire into a peace deal. “Tehran is in the process of responding to a text submitted by the U.S., which ‘has narrowed the gaps to some extent,’ the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported on Thursday, without saying where it got the information,” Bloomberg reported. “Further narrowing requires an end to the temptation for war on Washington’s part,” said the agency. The exchange of messages is based on Iran’s 14-point text from several weeks ago, the Iranian foreign ministry said separately. That plan essentially suggests a short-term deal that would see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. lift a blockade of Iranian ports, with the warring sides then going into deeper negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program. The developments follow renewed threats of escalation between the U.S. and Iran as their stand-off drags on.
If the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecast that the El Nino weather phenomenon will form as early as next month, U.S. farmers in the drought-stricken Southern Plains may get some relief later this year. The weather pattern shouldn’t adversely affect the Corn Belt this summer but could make for tougher conditions in South America and elsewhere. With 60% of the U.S. in some stage of drought, the appearance of El Nino and the potential for more rain could be an “overall positive” for U.S. farmers, says Brad Rippey, meteorologist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Check out a special report on the potential for a “Super El Nino” and what it means for global ag markets on ProFarmer.com.
CORN: July corn futures tagged 200-day moving average support at $4.60 3/4 overnight. Bulls are looking to keep prices above that mark. Resistance stands at $4.68, the 40-day moving average, on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures found support at the 40-day moving average at $11.93 1/4 overnight. Additional support comes in at $11.85. The psychological $12.00 mark limited most of the upside, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $12.03 1/4.
WHEAT: July SRW wheat found support at $6.53 3/4, the 10-day moving average, overnight. Additional support comes in at $6.50. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $6.60 then $6.67 1/4 on a reversal higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone supported by continued strength in cash fundamentals. Futures were weighed down by reports of a Cargill plant closure in Colorado, but that news is relatively old and will have little impact on the market overall. Cash trade continues to work higher, averaging $263.74 so far this week, above last week’s record. Choice beef slid $2.13 to $393.62 Wednesday, though movement was firm at 123 loads.
HOGS: Hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone supported by technical buying. Futures broke to fresh lows on Wednesday but are in the lower end of the ongoing downward sloping channel. The CME lean hog index is up 44 cents to $91.00 as of May 19, the biggest daily increase in nearly a month. Pork cutout slid $1.41 to $95.47 Wednesday, led by losses in bellies and ribs.