In the fields surrounding Plainview, Texas, the story of this year’s winter wheat crop isn’t told in golden waves ready for harvest. Instead, fields have been searching for rain since last fall, leaving struggling wheat plants clawing for survival in powder-dry soil.
“Wow, that’s dry,” say Steve Olson, a farmer in Plainview, Texas.
That offhand remark from Olson comes as he bends down and sifts through brittle earth, capturing the severity of conditions across the Southern Plains. What was once expected to be a harvestable crop has already been written off by most farmers, as even the winter wheat that’s under irrigation won’t make it to harvest this year.
A Crop That Never Had a Chance
Olson had every intention of taking his wheat to harvest this year. His wheat field saw about 8 inches of irrigation water this winter, but as the season progressed, warning signs became impossible to ignore. And nearly two weeks ago, the reality set in.
“When we saw the plants this small with the flag leaf starting to come out, we knew that we didn’t have enough plant structure there to be able to support a head that we can harvest,” Olson explains.
That realization came quickly, marking a turning point for many growers in the region.
Winter wheat relies heavily on fall and winter moisture to establish strong root systems and vegetative growth. This year, those rains simply didn’t come.
Months Without Moisture
Across much of West Texas, measurable rainfall has been largely absent since last fall.
“We got a few tenths a couple of days ago,” Olson says, gesturing to a slightly greener patch of field. “Before that? Since November… maybe October.”
That timeline underscores the depth of the drought. Without consistent moisture, wheat plants remained stunted, some only standing six to eight inches tall at this point, while prematurely attempting to reproduce.
“The flag leaf is starting to come out,” Olson notes. “So it’s trying to put a head out… all it’s wanting to do is reproduce. And it won’t be enough to ever harvest this.”
Widespread Abandonment Across the Plains
From the ground, and even more so from the air, the situation is stark. Fields across the region appear thin and uneven, with large stretches unlikely to ever see a combine.
Olson estimates the scale of loss is staggering:
“I’ll bet you maybe 10% of the wheat—maybe 5%—that was planted will actually ever be harvested,” says Olson.
That means the overwhelming majority of acres will be abandoned, grazed out, or terminated to make way for alternative crops.
“It’s really kind of sad,” he adds. “It’s one of the few crops you can keep some seed in and not be that big a deal. And of course, without the seed, we’ll be buying wheat.”
Olson isn’t alone. The first Crop Progress report of the year from USDA shows across Texas, more than half of the winter wheat is rated poor to very poor.
“Things are looking pretty rough, as we get into the heart of this early growing season for 2026,” USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey told AgDay earlier this week.
Shifting Plans, Uncertain Future
With wheat prospects fading fast, attention is turning to spring planting decisions—though those, too, hinge on one critical factor: rain.
“It would honestly take about four inches before we would have a three-foot profile,” Olson says. “And it’s going to have to fall right to be able to do that.”
Even irrigation offers limited reassurance. In extremely dry soils, water can disappear quickly into deep cracks or channels, failing to adequately recharge the root zone.
“You can watch the pivots run, and they’ll just find a hole and that water’s just going down,” he explains.
Holding Onto Hope
Despite the bleak outlook, Olson maintains a long-view perspective shaped by experience—and faith.
“It looks bleak,” he admits. “But it doesn’t stay dry forever. It doesn’t stay wet forever.”
For now, West Texas farmers are left balancing tough agronomic decisions with cautious optimism. The fate of the 2026 spring crop—and recovery from this year’s wheat losses—will depend on whether the skies finally open.
Until then, fields like Olson’s stand as a reminder of how quickly conditions can shift, and how fragile even the most carefully planned growing season can be, as he now may be forced to change his spring planting plans this year, too.