Good morning!
Grain futures firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, July corn was up 2 1/4 cents. July soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents. July soybean meal was up $0.50. July bean oil was up 51 points. July SRW was 2 1/2 cents higher and HRW wheat futures were 3 3/4 cents up. The grain market bulls need to step up heading into this long holiday weekend. Closes in prices today near their weekly lows would give the bears technical strength and more confidence to press the short sides next week. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $98.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.55%.
Latest on U.S.-Iran war… An attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates this week has raised fears about the scope of Iran’s retaliation to a potential U.S. resumption of strikes, with experts highlighting the greater role Tehran-backed militias in Iraq are playing in the war, Bloomberg reports. The UAE said this week that a drone targeting its Barakah plant on Sunday was launched from Iraq, condemning it as a “terrorist” act. Anwar Gargash, a senior adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed, blamed “Iranian militias in Iraq” for the incident, in a social media post. It’s “a grave indicator of the scale of the threat facing the region,” Gargash said. The incident forced the plant to activate backup power, one of the last lines of defense to maintain nuclear safety. Barakah is the Middle East’s largest nuclear power plant and one of two active in the region. “This was a warning shot by Iran” about what might be in store for the UAE and the rest of the Gulf if hostilities with Israel and the U.S. reignite, said Mohammed Baharoon, director of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center.
Stormy start to holiday weekend for eastern half of U.S. … The National Weather Service today said active weather will occur across the eastern half of the country the next few days, including multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly from the southern Plains and deep South to the Ohio Valley. The greatest concern for severe weather will be across the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms may also grow to become strong across portions of the mid-Missouri Valley, along the central Gulf Coast states, and in parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Meanwhile, the heavy rain and flash flooding potential ramps up across much of eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana.
Heat wave searing much of Europe… The first heat wave of the season is set to scorch Europe over the coming week, sending temperatures toward monthly records in the U.K., France and Spain, Bloomberg reports. A high-pressure heat dome is forecast to linger and push temperatures to much above normal, according to weather models and meteorologists. The unusual heat is set to intensify quickly over the U.K.’s holiday weekend, with daytime highs in London reaching 90 degrees F on Sunday, according to the U.K. Met Office. Longer-term weather patterns across Europe see frequent heat waves and extreme heat in the months ahead — especially as high temperatures start to sap moisture from soils across the northern half of Europe, meteorologists say. “It can lock in that high pressure system, which further amplifies the heat, temperature rises and that further suppresses rainfall — and you get that positive feedback loop,” said Amy Hodgson, a meteorologist with Atmospheric G2.
U.S. stock market climbing a wall of worry… The S&P 500 is heading for its longest streak of weekly wins since 2023 despite dimming hopes that the U.S. and Iran are moving closer to a peace deal. Unrelenting enthusiasm for artificial intelligence keeps on driving equities higher. The S&P 500 stock index is on track for an eighth straight week of gains. Equities are looking to end the week on a positive note, shaking off worries that severe disruptions to energy flows could stoke inflation. Signs that neither Iran nor the U.S. is looking to widen their conflict and growing appetite for a broader group of AI beneficiaries have kept volatility low despite often conflicting reports around peace talks.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) grain outlook report… For the 2025-26 marketing year, the AAFC outlook reflects Statistics Canada’s March 31, 2026 stocks data , showing total stocks of principal field crops up 15.4% year-over-year and 19.3% above the 2021-25 average. This increase is largely due to the record 2025 harvest. End-of-March stocks rose year on year for most crops, particularly durum and wheat (ex-durum), canola, flaxseed, lentils, dry peas, oats, and rye. Consequently, carry-out stocks (ending year inventories) for all major field crops are forecast to increase sharply, reflecting strong production and slightly lower exports. Prices are expected to weaken year on year for most crops, though modest gains are forecast for corn, canola, soybeans, and mustard seed.
Wealth fund to control Indonesia commodity exports… Indonesia is building a body to oversee key commodity exports, including palm oil, coal, and nickel, to be managed by a sovereign wealth fund. The government wants to increase accountability in the country’s commodities industries, and details of the plan will be provided over “the next few weeks,” Bloomberg said in a report. The new body will focus initially on trading coal and crude palm oil, and will operate with corresponding governance standards, with the goal of being “in full force” by the first part of January.
Australia mulls boosting biofuels production… The Australian government is planning to open consultation on introducing mandates for biofuels as part of a plan to boost energy security, lower transport emissions and take advantage of the nation’s billion-dollar agricultural industry, said a Bloomberg report. A consultation for potential demand measures to support lower-emission fuels will begin soon, a spokesperson for Transport Minister Catherine King said, with the government looking to draw on international policies to inform their own measures. The spokesperson said the goal would be to create a policy which “provides certainty for new Australian low carbon liquid fuel production, builds our long-term fuel security, and ensures we have investment in new, clean fuel refining capacity.” Australia has lagged behind the global shift toward increasing biofuel production despite exporting significant quantities of feedstocks such as canola and tallow.
North Dakota oil pipeline gets final thumbs-up… The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers finalized an easement for a stretch of the Dakota Access pipeline that passes under a North Dakota lake, ending a years-long environmental review of the hotly contested oil conduit. The record of decision issued Thursday followed the U.S. Army Corps’ December publication of an environmental impact statement that evaluated whether the pipeline could continue operating beneath Lake Oahe. Thursday’s result includes additional conditions including enhanced leak detection and monitoring requirements, according to a statement. The Dakota Access conduit began operating in 2017 and transports as much as 750,000 barrels of oil daily from North Dakota’s Bakken field to a southern Illinois hub that feeds into pipelines serving the Midwest and Gulf Coast. The project has faced years of legal and political challenges centered on the Lake Oahe crossing.
Malaysian palm oil futures firmer… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered around MYR 4,500 per MT Friday, recovering from recent losses as a weaker ringgit and firmer soyoil prices in Chicago lifted sentiment. Gains in crude oil prices also lent support, amid fading hopes for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace talks. Meanwhile, top producer Indonesia plans to establish a centralized export agency for key commodities, including palm oil, raising concerns over possible supply disruptions during the transition period while potentially benefiting Malaysia’s palm oil sector. For the week, contracts are heading for a solid gain of near 2%, reversing drops in the prior three weeks. However, the upside was capped by weak exports, with cargo surveyors noting palm oil shipments for May 1–20 fell between 13.9% and 20.5% from the same period in April. In India, the world’s largest palm oil buyer, imports dropped 26% in April to a four-month low, due to softer institutional demand and a narrowing price discount against competing edible oils.
Cattle futures see heavy profit-taking, weak long liquidation ahead of COF data… June live cattle on Thursday fell $4.125 to $249.15. August feeder cattle fell the daily trading limit of $9.25 to $356.2525. Both live cattle and feeder cattle futures will see expanded trading limits today. The big limit-down sell off in feeder cattle futures helped to lead live cattle futures down, too. Heavy profit-taking and weak long liquidation were featured in feeder futures, which spilled over into strong price pressure in live cattle futures. Cattle futures traders are expecting a bearish USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report this afternoon–specifically the placements figure. The report is expected to show cattle on Feed as of May 1 at 11.558 million head, which would be 101.6% of the level seen one year ago at the same time. Placements in April are seen at 103.4 percent of last year, at 1.668 million head. Marketings in April are seen at 90.7% of one year ago, at 1.655 million head. These numbers are from a Reuters survey of analysts.
Lean hog futures hit a five-month low… June lean hogs on Thursday fell $2.15 to $95.125 and hit another five-month low. The hog futures market saw still more technical selling featured. The near-term technical posture for June hogs remains firmly bearish as prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 45 cents at $91.00. Today’s projected cash index price is up 7 cents at $91.07. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Thursday was $93.10.