USDA forecasts net farm income will decline $25.9 billion (15.9%) from last year to $136.9 billion, driven partly by an expected $5.4 billion (34.4%) drop in direct government payments.
Soybean futures recouped a portion of Monday’s losses overnight, while the corn market gave back yesterday’s gains and wheat futures showed a mixed tone.
Although soybean export inspections were down over 100,00 MT from the previous week, they continue to prove consistent. Wheat inspections topped pre-report expectations, while corn landed just above the low-end estimate.
Mixed trade is expected in the grain and soy markets this morning as traders monitor the U.S./China situation and prepare for USDA's February crop reports on Wednesday.
Grain and soy futures traded lower overnight, with late pressure from a surge in the U.S. dollar after the much stronger-than-expected January jobs data. We expect the weaker tone to continue early this morning.
Corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to open higher. Weekly sales were strong for corn, at the lower end of expectations for soybeans and poor for wheat.
Export sales for week ended Jan. 26 showed corn sales of 1.593 MMT, notably above top-end estimates of 1.2 MMT. Soybean sales were just above low-end estimates of 700,000 MT, while wheat fell short by over 163,000 MT.
We expect followthrough selling from overnight trade to be seen in the grain and soy markets this morning. Key will be whether funds actively liquidate long positions or view the pullback as a fresh buying opportunity.
Weekly export inspections for week ended Jan. 26, showed corn inspections 200,860 MT below the previous week, missing low-end estimates by over 70,000 MT. Wheat and soybean export inspections were each notable.
Corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to open with a firmer tone on followthrough from overnight gains, along with supportive weekly export sales data and strength in crude oil.
USDA's weekly export data for week ended Jan. 19 showed wheat sales up 6% from the previous week and 84% from the prior four-week average. Net soybean sales were up 53% from the four-week average, while corn was up 46%.