USDA on Thursday forecast 2026 net farm income to fall, while downwardly revising its 2025 income estimates in the latest round of downbeat news around the state of the agricultural economy.
USDA estimated 2026 net farm income at $153.4 billion, down $1.2 billion from last year, while net cash farm income, which includes government payments, was projected to see a modest rise of $4.6 billion to $158.5 billion. Direct government farm payments play a big role. They’re forecast at $44.3 billion for 2026, an increase of $13.8 billion, or 45%, from 2025.
USDA sees corn receipts up slightly, with soybean receipts flat and wheat down. Here’s the breakdown by commodity:
- Corn receipts are expected to grow $2.0 billion, or 3.3%, in 2026, mainly due to higher quantities sold.
- Soybean receipts are expected to hold steady in 2026.
- Wheat receipts are projected to fall $200 million, or 2.4%, due to lower quantities sold.
- Rice receipts are forecast to decline by $400 million, or 12.5% because of falling prices and smaller quantities sold.
- Receipts for hay are expected to rise $400 million, or 5.5%, in 2026.
- Cotton receipts are seen holding steady.
Cattle remain a rare bright spot. Receipts for cattle and calves are projected to grow $5.2 billion, or 4.1%, with cattle prices expected to continue rising in 2026.
Farm Bureau economists noted that USDA revised 2025 production expenses higher, to $473.1 billion, while adjusting direct government payments lower, to about $30.5 billion, roughly $10 billion below earlier expectations. USDA’s Thursday estimate of 2025 net farm income at $154.6 billion is down roughly $25 billion from the $179.8 billion forecast in September. Net cash farm income for 2025 was also revised lower to $153.9 billion, nearly $27 billion below the $180.7 billion previously projected.
“Together, these revisions suggest the farm economy is experiencing a generational downturn rather than a temporary slowdown,” they said, in an analysis. “Outside of the cattle sector, most commodity markets are weakening. The updated forecast further cements that the expectations of a strong income rebound for 2025 did not come to fruition and this reinforces that farm profitability last year was more fragile than previously believed.”
Concerns around the state of the farm economy are growing. A bipartisan group of former leaders of U.S. farm groups, former USDA officials and state agriculture directors sent a letter to top House and Senate ag committee lawmakers warning that the dire state of the farm economy risked a “widespread collapse” of U.S. agriculture. The January Purdue University - CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed a steep decline in farmer sentiment and a downbeat long-term outlook.