GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 1 cent lower to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains saw modest strength overnight while soybeans continue to fall under modest selling pressure. New-crop soybeans continue to see relative strength in an attempt to buy acres for 2026. The soybean/corn ratio dropped sharply on Monday’s sell-off, shifting some favor to corn, but high input costs remain obstructive for producers who did not cover fertilizers ahead of time. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is up over 250 points.
U.S. producer price inflation rose 0.7% month-over-month in February, up from 0.5% in January and well above forecasts of 0.3%. That marks the biggest increase in producer prices in seven months. A 48.9% surge in fresh and dry vegetables led inflation higher. On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 3.4%, the highest mark in a year. Core PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month, down from a 0.8% gain in January and above forecasts of 0.3%. On an annual basis, core PPI rose 3.9%, tied for the sharpest increase in three years.
Latest on the war in Iran:
--Iranian attacks in the Persian Gulf continued with a fresh wave of missiles and drones, targeting the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
--The attacks followed Iran’s confirming the assassination of its security chief, Ali Larijani, in an Israeli strike. Also, Israel says Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib has been killed. Israel’s killing the two officials leaves Iran’s wartime leadership largely in the hands of hardliners who may be less likely to seek a diplomatic pathway out of the war.
--Trump said the U.S. would soon be ready to end the war: “We’re not ready to leave yet. But we’ll be leaving in the near future.”
--Israel has stepped up an offensive in Lebanon, where strikes have killed more than 900 people, according to the Lebanese government.
--Iran has been moving its crude through the Strait of Hormuz at rates broadly comparable to before the war began.
--Oil prices dip as Iraq signed a deal to resume exports via Turkey that avoid the Strait of Hormuz, and as the U.S. stepped up efforts to force the reopening of the key waterway.
-- U.S. to ease Venezuela sanctions to unlock more oil amid Middle East war
--China to tap its vast crude oil stockpiles to offset Iran crisis
Traders and investors will be looking to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for insight on how the U.S. central bank is weighing risks to the economy amid war in the Middle East. Fed officials are expected to keep interest rates steady and release fresh economic projections that could reveal how they’re interpreting recent economic data and geopolitical events. Powell will hold a press conference early this afternoon, where he will likely emphasize that Fed officials need more time to see how long the U.S. conflict with Iran lasts and to assess how it might impact economic growth and inflation. “Bond traders are scaling back aggressive bets that had driven markets to price out Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. The market has shifted back to pricing at least one quarter-point cut by the end of 2026, after a sell off in short-end Treasuries accelerated due to inflationary worries fueled by oil topping $100 a barrel,” said a Bloomberg report.
CORN: May corn futures was caught between 10-day moving average resistance at $4.55 1/4 and 20-day moving average support at $4.51 1/4 overnight. Those remain key levels today, with a close outside of those marks likely dictating the near-term direction.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans faced modest selling pressure overnight. Support at $11.50 capped most selling efforts overnight, which is backed by yesterday’s low of $11.45 1/4. Bulls are looking to tackle resistance at $11.72 1/4 on resurgent strength.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.93 1/4 then the psychological $6.00 mark on a bounce. Support comes in at $5.84 1/2, the 20-day moving average, on continued selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone amid technical selling pressure. The JBS plant strike continues and the company is shifting operations to other facilities amid the production cut. Cash cattle trade remains slow to start the week but packer margins shifting to the black has been supportive for a potential bid for cash supplies, especially considering the bounce in futures. Choice cutout rose 65 cents to $403.31 Tuesday, continuing the ongoing uptrend.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of the ongoing downtrend. The CME lean hog index is up another 10 cents to $91.86 as of March 16. Gains have been disappointing in the index, which has been weighing on futures. Pork cutout slid 55 cents to $99.89 Tuesday, led by losses in bellies and butts.