China has granted a five-year extension to hundreds of U.S. beef plant export registrations, marking the first major concrete movement in months on a trade issue that has significantly constrained access to one of the most important overseas markets for American beef.
According to a Friday statement from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) has extended registrations for 425 overdue U.S. beef establishments in China’s CIFER system. In addition, 77 new U.S. beef establishment registrations have been added, effective May 15, 2026, with each valid for five years. However, 38 beef establishments remain suspended. Of those, 25 were previously expired and have now been administratively renewed, but they are still not eligible to export.
The announcement adds a significant new development to a week of confusion and shifting signals around U.S. beef access to China. On Thursday, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that China appeared to have renewed export registrations for hundreds of U.S. beef plants during high-level talks between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing. But those listings later reverted to “expired” on China’s customs website, with no official explanation, fueling uncertainty across the industry.
As recently as Friday morning, there had been no clear confirmation that broad renewals were in place. The USMEF update now provides the most concrete indication yet that at least partial restoration of access is underway, even as some facilities remain blocked.
Restoring Plant Registrations Was Top Priority for USMEF
For USMEF, restoring those registrations is priority number one, and even said before the high-level meeting this week that this type of meeting would be the perfect stage to restore the registrations..
“We have been at an impasse now for almost a year with these plants,” says Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation. “The vast majority of the U.S. plants — 400-plus — are either delisted or were never relisted in their registration system in China. So in my opinion, it’s going to take an event like this to maybe jar this loose and break it loose. We’re cautiously optimistic that having this high-level meeting between President Xi and President Trump might just do that.”
Halstrom said while beef is only one piece of the broader trade relationship, these talks could provide the political momentum needed to reopen access.
“There are so many issues outside of beef and even outside of agriculture that are being discussed,” he says. “But time will tell. A meeting like this could absolutely be what we’ve been waiting for.”
From a $2 Billion Market to a Fraction of That
How high are the stakes? According to Halstrom, they’re significant. He says following the Phase One trade agreement in 2020, U.S. beef exports to China exploded. According to Halstrom, exports grew from roughly $300 million in 2020 to more than $2 billion by 2022.
But after the registration lapse last year, exports sharply declined.
“If you remember back to 2020 with the Phase One deal with China, that was a home run for the U.S. beef industry,” Halstrom says. “In 2020, we were exporting about $300 million of U.S. beef. We peaked out in 2022 at a little over $2 billion. Then in 2023 and 2024, we were around $1.6 billion. But after the plants were delisted last year, we dropped to a little under $500 million. So at a very high level, that’s the impact we’re talking about.”
And that loss isn’t just showing up on export balance sheets. It’s hitting cattle values at home.
Halstrom estimates access to the China market adds roughly $150 to $165 per fed animal harvested in the U.S.
“China has become a very important market because of the way it helps maximize the value of the carcass,” he explains. “There are products, especially variety meats that have significantly more value in China than they do here domestically. Items like backstrap and aorta are in very high demand there. If those products suddenly don’t have a home in China, it impacts the value chain almost immediately.”
Why China Matters to the Cutout
Halstrom says the impact also extends into traditional muscle cuts, especially short plates.
“Today, beef short plates are trading roughly around $2.50 per pound,” Halstrom says. “We estimate that if these plants were relisted and access was restored, you could see short plate values increase by more than a dollar per pound in relatively short order. That’s substantial.”
Halstrom also points out China’s importance stretches beyond just direct exports into the country. It really impacts all of Asia.
“It’s not just about what gets sold directly to China,” he says “The China market creates a halo effect across Asia because a lot of these same items are traded between China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. So when China is actively buying, you immediately see stronger demand and stronger pricing across the region for products like short ribs, chuck flap and short plates.”
That broader demand ripple helps support overall cattle prices in the U.S.
“More customers rather than fewer is what impacts the cutout,” Halstrom says. “And there’s no doubt there’s been big money lost over the last year because these plants have not been relisted.”
More Than Just Plant Registrations
Halstrom stresses the expired registrations are only one layer of the issue that needs to be addressed.
“It’s not just the plant relistments,” he explains. “That’s phase one of what we need to have done. A large percentage of these plants are also dealing with technical and non-tariff trade issues, including residue-related issues that have caused additional delistings. So there are really two phases here — first getting these plants relisted in the registration system, and then working through these broader trade barriers.”
He said the U.S. Trade Representative’s office is fully aware of the challenges facing the industry and is listening.
“We’ve been dealing with USTR on these issues and they are very well informed on it,” Halstrom says. “The other thing from an agriculture perspective is encouraging the Chinese to go back and look at what they already committed to with the Phase One agreement back in 2020.”
Demand Is Still There
Despite the political tensions, Halstrom said the commercial appetite for U.S. beef in China hasn’t disappeared.
“One important point here is these are not government-to-government transactions. These are our customers,” Halstrom says. “They want the product and we want to sell it. The commercial business is still there.”
He pointed to major retailers and foodservice buyers already positioned to resume purchases quickly if access returns.
“Sam’s Club comes to mind immediately because they’re one of the leading modern big-box retailers in China,” Halstrom says. “Costco has warehouses there as well, and we also have foodservice customers lined up and ready to go. So we do not need to rebuild the commercial business. The customers are there, willing and able to buy U.S. beef. What we need is for the U.S. government and the Chinese government to work together to restore access so we can get back on track.”
As of the latest industry checks this week, registrations for most U.S. beef plants still had not been renewed.