GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans continue to lead strength and pushed to fresh highs overnight. Corn and wheat struggled to reciprocate and saw relative weakness. Outside markets are relatively quiet this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 100 points lower.
Iran and the U.S. are set to start negotiations today to de-escalate tensions that have threatened to spiral into war, with Tehran saying the talks will be the first stage of a longer diplomatic process, Bloomberg reports. The meeting in Oman’s capital of Muscat will focus on broad topics rather than finer details and are expected to clarify a road map for further talks, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported early Friday. The U.S. delegation is expected to be led by Steve Witkoff, a special envoy for President Trump, and Iran’s by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Iran’s main priorities include “assessing the other side’s goodwill and seriousness,” IRNA said. “The road map for negotiations appears set to become clearer once this round concludes.” Trump has threatened Tehran with military strikes if it doesn’t agree to a deal, with Iran warning that any attack would trigger a regional war engulfing Israel and the U.S.
Argentina and the U.S. agreed to scrap hundreds of tariffs on each other’s goods in a trade and investment deal inked Thursday, a major step in President Javier Milei’s push to open up the historically protectionist South American economy, said a Bloomberg report. The U.S. agreed to eliminate over 1,600 reciprocal tariffs on Argentine goods while Milei’s government will terminate more than 220 levies on U.S. products, Argentina’s foreign ministry said in a statement. Argentina will be able to export 100,000 tons of beef to the U.S. with preferential access as part of the agreement, up from the current quota of 20,000 tons, according to the foreign ministry’s statement. The quota increase amounts to an extra $800 million, officials estimated. “That detail could revive tensions between Trump and some Republican lawmakers, who sought to protect U.S. ranchers from more competition from Argentine beef last year. Argentina will also increase its imports of American beef, cars and agricultural products,” said Bloomberg.
A long-awaited recovery in the farm sector appears to be in sight as AGCO Corp., one of the world’s biggest agriculture equipment makers, is predicting an increase in sales for the first time in three years, Bloomberg reported. The manufacturer of Massey Ferguson and Fendt tractors estimated 2026 net sales just above last year, according to a Thursday statement. While the sale of new machines is set to remain sluggish, growers need to update soon and are increasingly retrofitting existing equipment with artificial-intelligence packed components that help them more precisely plant, treat and harvest fields. “The future looks brighter,” Chief Executive Officer Eric Hansotia said on a call with investors. Last year “was the bottom of the trough, and the fleets in our major markets are at the peak of their age.” AGCO shares rose as much as 5.6% to the highest level in two years, before paring gains. For 2026, net sales could rise to between $10.4 billion and $10.7 billion, AGCO said. That’s above a Bloomberg estimate of $10.07 billion and surpasses sales in the year ended Dec. 31 of $10.08 billion.
CORN: March corn futures saw modest selling pressure overnight. Support comes in at $4.30 3/4 on persistent selling. Resistance stands at yesterday’s high of $4.35 3/4.
SOYBEANS: March soybeans pushed to fresh highs overnight. Continued strength finds resistance at the psychological $11.25 mark. Support comes in at $11.12 1/4 then $11.00 on profit-taking.
WHEAT: March SRW futures saw followthrough buying overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.41 1/2 on continued strength, which is reinforced by last week’s high at $5.44 3/4. Support comes in at $5.33 1/4 on a turn lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by technical buying. April futures hit 40-day moving average support on Thursday and reversed losses, which could result in followthrough strength today. Reports that the U.S. will begin importing more Brazilian beef could weigh on futures, but the quantity to be imported is not all that much in terms of U.S. consumption. Cash cattle trade initiated at $240.00 this week, which should lend some support as well.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by technical strength. The 10-day moving average limited the downside on Thursday and could lend additional support today. Prices remain in a solid uptrend on the daily bar chart and the cash market remains supportive. The CME lean hog index is up another 32 cents to $86.38 as of Feb. 4. Pork cutout meanwhile climbed $2.27 to $95.27 Thursday, led by a $6.38 bounce in bellies.