Good morning!
Grain futures weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was down 1 3/4 cents. March soybeans were 3 cents lower. March SRW and HRW wheat futures were down 2 3/4 to 4 cents. The grain market bulls are fading, save for bean oil, and it seems the bulls need a fresh fundamental spark. Some dry pockets in Brazil and Argentine corn and soybean regions are so far not moving the needle on futures prices. The key outside markets have not helped the grain market bulls lately, as the U.S. dollar index has rebounded smartly from its January low, while crude oil prices have backed down from the January high. Those outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up, with crude oil slightly higher and trading around $63.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.28 percent.
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Milder weather in Midwest, Plains states… The National Weather Service today reported a significant warm up will emerge across the northern High Plains today, expanding east across the northern Plains toward the upper Midwest through the next couple of days. Ahead of a warm front, light snow will be moving into the Great Lakes on Thursday, with the arrival of snow showers and possibly snow squalls over the upper Great Lakes by early on Friday, signaling the arrival of the next intense surge from arctic air from Canada. Relatively quiet weather is expected farther down the Great Plains with a gradual warming trend spreading south into Texas heading into Friday. Mostly clear skies will be over much of the eastern U.S., allowing temperatures to fall back to single digits and teens from the Ohio Valley to much of the Northeast by Thursday morning. By Friday morning, the cold air will make it all the way down to Florida, where 30s to 40s will be common, with below freezing temperatures returning to the Florida Panhandle. Meanwhile, much of the western U.S. will remain dry, with milder-than-normal conditions.
U.S. government partial shutdown ends… The partial federal government shutdown ended Tuesday after President Trump signed a funding deal he negotiated with Senate Democrats. The funding package continues to fund deportation flights and only funds the Department of Homeland Security through Feb. 13, while the rest of the government is funded through the Sept. 30 end of the fiscal year. A group of House conservatives initially opposed the deal but relented after Trump demanded they vote to pass the measure, which some Democrats voted against because it does not impose new protocols on immigration agents.
Gold, silver extend rallies at mid-week, but China ETF outflows are a warning… Gold and silver prices are sharply higher in early trading today, extending Tuesday’s strong gains and working to relieve trader and investor anxiety in the general marketplace at mid-week following the two metals’ recent extreme daily price volatility. However, a shot across the bow for the gold and silver market bulls has come from China. Bloomberg reported China’s major gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded their biggest ever daily outflows Tuesday – nearly $1 billion combined – with investor confidence rattled by the metal’s abrupt pullback from an all-time high. Mainland China’s four largest bullion-backed ETFs saw total net outflows of about 6.8 billion yuan ($980 million) on Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That marked a second straight day of declines for the Huaan Yifu, Bosera, E Fund and Guotai ETFs, just days after they notched record inflows last week.
Iran wants talks with U.S. moved from Turkey to Oman, as tensions build… Iran has asked the U.S. to move diplomatic talks originally planned for Turkey to Oman and to limit the agenda to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. Tehran is resisting U.S. pressure to include its ballistic-missile program and support for allied militias in the Middle East in the negotiations, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private matters. They added that Iran also opposes the participation of regional countries, aside from Turkey, in the negotiations. “Contrasting positions over the scope of talks could heighten tensions with Washington,” said the report. President Trump has threatened to strike Iran if it doesn’t agree to a deal, which his administration has signaled must include Iran ending its support for regional proxies and curbs on its arms development as well as a framework for atomic activities. On Tuesday, a U.S. jet shot down an Iranian drone after it “aggressively approached” the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, the U.S. military and government said. Trump on Tuesday reiterated the U.S. and Iran are maintaining diplomatic contact.
U.S. to detail plans for expansive rare-earth supply chain rebuild… The Trump administration is expected to unveil “its grandest plan yet to rebuild supply chains of critical minerals needed for everything from jet engines to smartphones, likely through purchase agreements with partners on top of creating a $12 billion U.S. strategic reserve to help counter China’s dominance,” the Associated Press reports. Vice President JD Vance is set to deliver a keynote address today at a meeting that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hosting with officials from several dozen European, Asian and African nations. The U.S. is expected to sign deals on supply chain logistics, though details have not yet been revealed. Rubio met Tuesday with foreign ministers from South Korea and India to discuss critical minerals mining and processing, said the AP. The meeting and expected agreements will come just two days after President Donald Trump announced “Project Vault,” or a stockpile of critical minerals to be funded with a $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export and Import Bank and nearly $1.67 billion in private capital.
Top China official vows big push for more domestic consumption… China will press ahead with building a unified market to unleash domestic consumption as countries around Asia face a “pivotal juncture” in the transformation of the global economy, a top China economic official said and as reported by Bloomberg. Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said China is shifting towards new growth drivers in order to pursue high-quality development and will create more business opportunities for the region as the country opens its economy further. Liao said the current global economic landscape is complex and marked by challenges and policy uncertainty, citing ongoing volatility, rising geopolitical tensions, and supply‑chain disruptions.
Malaysian palm oil futures trade near steady… Malaysian palm oil futures were little changed Wednesday, holding around MYR 4,215 per MT after two sessions of losses. Price action stayed muted as a stronger ringgit and firmer Chicago soyoil offset support from gains in Dalian vegetable oils. Traders remained cautious ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly data, due February 10, which is expected to set a fresh direction. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council projected prices to hover between MYR 4,000 and MYR 4,300 in February, reflecting balanced market conditions. On the demand side, exports provided support, with January shipments estimated to have risen between 14.9%–17.9% month-on-month, according to cargo surveyors. In India, imports surged 51% to a four-month high as palm oil’s steep discount to soyoil spurred refiners’ buying. Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s top producer, saw exports jump 102.23% from December, with total 2025 shipments up 9.1% year-on-year at 23.61 million MT.
Cattle futures markets at three-month highs… April live cattle on Tuesday rose $2.10 to $241.625 and hit a three-month high. March feeder cattle gained $1.575 to $367.925 and closed at a three-month-high close. The cattle futures markets saw decent follow-through buying Tuesday, amid last week’s surge in cash cattle prices and firmly bullish technical postures. USDA Tuesday said there was no reportable cash cattle trading yet this week. Last week’s average cash cattle trade was $239.44, up $4.74 from the week prior’s average cash trade at $234.70.
Lean hog futures hit new contract high… April lean hog futures on Tuesday rose $1.525 to $98.15 and hit a contract high. Hog futures saw more technical buying amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The April futures solid premium to the cash market suggests futures traders believe there is more upside for the cash hog market in the coming weeks. The latest CME lean hog index is down 7 cents at $85.71. Today’s projected cash index price is up 12 cents at $85.83. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Tuesday was $59.98.