Good morning!
Grain futures mixed to firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 1 1/2 cents. May soybeans were 2 1/4 cents higher and hit another three-month high. May soybean meal was up $2.70 and hit another 2.5-month high, while May bean oil was off 46 points as spread traders unwind long bean oil, short meal trades. The soy complex has been supported recently on ideas of better biodiesel blending volumes coming to market. May SRW wheat was 1 cent higher and HRW wheat futures were down 2 cents. On tap for grain traders today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, with crude oil prices lower and trading around $64.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.05 percent.
Mild, mostly calm weather across the U.S. today… The National Weather Service today said most of the lower 48 states look to stay dry today, before another clipper system diving out the Canadian Rockies leads to modest snowfall from the Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow and Saturday. Temperature-wise, much of the lower 48 can enjoy much-above-normal conditions through the first half of the weekend. Daytime highs in the Southwest and southern Plains will be especially warm for this time of year and numerous record high temperatures could fall through Sunday as temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s in places. By Saturday, the arrival of the clipper in the northern tier states will lead to a drastic cool-off for much of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Eventually, this cooler air is expected to reach the Northeast beyond Saturday.
U.S., Iran hold third round of nuclear talks… The U.S. and Iran started a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva, Switzerland today, with days to go until President Trump’s deadline for a deal. “The two parties have been locked in a tense, months-long standoff over the Islamic Republic’s atomic activities and are negotiating through mediator Oman at its embassy in Geneva, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency said and as reported by Bloomberg. “Iran has come here with a very reasonable amount of flexibility,” Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Iranian state TV on the sidelines of the talks in Switzerland. “We are entitled to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, that’s a right that is recognized.” Trump has given Iran a deadline of March 1-6 to strike a deal and has threatened military action if it fails to do so, sparking fears of a new Middle East war that could embroil Israel and Gulf Arab oil producers.
U.S., India officials meet to talk trade again… U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick met India’s Commerce and Trade Minister Piyush Goyal today, days after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s tariffs regime, signaling that the bilateral deal remains on track. “Engaged in very fruitful discussions to expand our trade and economic partnership,” Goyal said in a post on X and as reported by Bloomberg. A U.S. Embassy spokesman in New Delhi confirmed Lutnick was in the capital for a “brief stop” but declined to comment further. Washington concluded an interim agreement with India earlier this month, lowering tariffs from 50% to 18%. The accord followed several rounds of discussion, though the two sides have yet to formally sign it.
Russia launches major drone, missile attack on Ukraine… Russia set off a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine, hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and President Trump discussed potential next steps in peace talks. Dozens of people, including children, were injured in Russian strikes on eight regions of the country involving 420 drones and 39 missiles, Zelenskiy said today in a post on Telegram and as reported by Bloomberg. Energy infrastructure was targeted in Kyiv and the Dnipro and Poltava regions, he said. Top U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators are due to meet in Geneva today to discuss economic issues, including a so-called prosperity plan for financing Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, said the report.
Port of Long Beach imports down in January… Imports through California’s Port of Long Beach dropped 13% in January from last year, when shippers were rushing to move freight in anticipation of U.S. tariffs. Despite an 11% drop in total container units, CEO Noel Hacegaba told reporters that the Port of Long Beach was the most active port in the U.S. last month, beating its southern California neighbor, the Port of Los Angeles, said Bloomberg. “Our strong cargo volumes do not suggest we are not being affected by tariffs,” Hacegaba said Wednesday, noting that last year’s iron and steel tonnage was down 32%. Toys and sports equipment declined 15%, while there was also a 43% decline in synthetic fiber imports and a 21% drop in salt, sulfur and cement, he said. Loaded import containers declined last month by 13.1% to 409,818 twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs. Export containers were nearly flat at 99,478, and empty containers moving through the Port of Long Beach fell 11.5% to 338,470, according to port data. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Wednesday it could take “a couple months” for the administration to re-establish Trump’s tariff regime in ways that uphold existing agreements.
Wall Street struggling to figure out economic impact of AI… A blog post earlier this week by Citrini Research titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” sparked a stock market dip as investors digested the worrisome scenario of AI replacing white-collar jobs and causing a deflationary spiral. “The post imagined a scenario where extremely capable AI agents have replaced vast swaths of white-collar jobs, wiping out consumer spending and pushing the global economy into a deflationary spiral, causing stocks of firms like Uber and Mastercard to tumble,” Bloomberg said in a report. “The reaction to the post is the latest indication that Wall Street is struggling to understand the trajectory of AI, with investors worried that the technology will be either not lucrative enough or too disruptive to the economy,” said the report.
Malaysian palm oil futures weaker… Malaysian palm oil futures dipped below MYR 4,050 per MT on Thursday, extending the previous session’s subdued tone as losses in Dalian palm oil and Chicago soyoil weighed on sentiment. Prices hovered around a one-week low, pressured by a firmer ringgit and weak export performance, despite seasonal demand linked to Ramadan and the upcoming Eid al-Fitr festival. Cargo surveyors estimated that Malaysian palm oil shipments for February 1–25 dropped between 12.1% and 16.1% compared with the same period in January, reinforcing downside pressure. Still, the broader outlook remains mixed. Demand from India, the top buyer, is expected to recover in 2026 amid improved price competitiveness, with imports potentially hitting 800,000 MT. Meanwhile, crude oil prices held near multi-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions, lending some support to the edible oils complex. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects prices to consolidate within the MYR 4,000–4,300 per MT range in March.
Cattle futures markets once again show resilience… April live cattle on Wednesday rose $1.175 to $240.275. March feeders gained $1.20 to $366.30. The cattle futures market bulls Wednesday did what they’ve done several times the past few months: show resilience and strength on price pullbacks to keep price uptrends alive and maintain their technical edge. Traders are awaiting cash cattle trade to develop this week, with notions that packers won’t be willing to pay higher money for animals because their cutting margins are deep in the red. USDA at midday Wednesday reported no cash cattle trading yet this week. The agency Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $246.91, up $1.29 from the week prior.
Lean hog bulls enjoying price uptrend in place… April lean hog futures on Wednesday rose 40 cents to $95.20 and hit a two-week high. Hog futures saw more technical buying and perceived bargain hunting following the mid-February price downdraft. Bulls have re-established a price uptrend on the daily chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 18 cents at $88.35. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 36 cents at $88.71. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $67.13.