Good morning!
Grain futures prices mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 1 1/4 cents. May soybeans were 3 1/2 cents higher and hit a three-month high. May soybean meal was up $2.50 and hit a 2.5-month high, while May bean oil was off 30 points after hitting a contract high overnight. May SRW wheat was 2 3/4 cents lower and HRW wheat futures were down 3 1/2 cents. It can be argued the grain futures markets this week have performed better than many traders expected, given the upheaval and uncertainty regarding the Trump administration’s tariffs regime and the reactions from global trading partners, which also created keener risk aversion in the general marketplace. This could be an early, positive sign for the grain markets in the coming weeks and months. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, with crude oil prices also slightly up and trading around $65.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.05 percent.
Warmer and dry over much of the Midwest, Plains … The National Weather Service today said after a wet start to the week, dry and benign weather is expected for the western U.S. as an amplifying West Coast ridge shuts off stubborn atmospheric river activity once more, including the ongoing mountain snowfall and low elevation rain in the Northern Rockies. To accompany the dry weather out West, well above-average temperatures are expected to expand across much of the West, into the Plains states and the Southeast. The combination of low relative humidity associated with the warmth and gusty winds will support critical fire weather conditions over the southern High Plains today, where a few red flag warnings are in effect. Meanwhile, by the end of the work week, a secondary clipper is forecast to dive out of the Canadian Rockies and drive upslope snowfall in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
Trump touts new savings plan for American workers… Millions of private-sector workers without employer-sponsored retirement savings plans could gain access to new tax-advantaged plans similar to one in place for federal workers, President Trump pledged in his State of the Union speech Tuesday night. The new 401(k)-type plan would be modeled after the low-fee federal Thrift Savings Plan, or TSP, to remedy what Trump termed “the gross disparity” between the roughly 50% of the population who have access to workplace retirement savings plans and those who do not. Workers could get a matching contribution from the government of as much as $1,000 a year, Bloomberg reported. Trump delivered the longest State of the Union address in the television era, declaring “a turnaround for the ages” for the U.S. economy. Trump also said he would institute new tariffs using other legal authorities, noting that the new regime may be more complex. Trump also said Iran is working to reconstitute its nuclear program even as it negotiates with Washington, adding to speculation that he’s preparing for a fresh round of military strikes in the coming days. Iranian officials are “again pursuing their sinister ambitions,” Trump said in his State of the Union address.
- Trump on beef prices: “The price of eggs is down 60%,” Trump said, in the address. “The cost of chicken, butter, fruit, hotels, automobiles, rent, is lower today than when I took office, by a lot. And even beef, which was very high, is starting to come down significantly. Just hold on a little while, we’re getting it down. And soon you will see numbers that few people would think were possible to achieve just a short time ago.” Beef and veal prices saw a monthly decline of 0.4% in December, according the the January Consumer Price Index, but were up 15% from January 2025.
Boston Fed President: U.S. rates on hold “for some time.” … Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins on Tuesday said U.S. interest rates are likely to stay unchanged “for some time” as recent economic data shows an improvement in the labor market, while risks to inflation remain. The labor market is showing “at least some more signs of an unusual kind of stability,” Collins said during a panel discussion hosted by the Boston Fed and as reported by Bloomberg. She also pointed to the need for more evidence that inflation is coming down toward 2%. “I think that it’s quite likely that it will be appropriate to hold the current range for some time,” she said. “After 175 basis points of easing over the past year and a half, we are at mildly restrictive, perhaps quite close to neutral already,” Collins said, referencing the level at which interest rates neither stimulate nor restrain the economy.
Israel says it will buy more U.S. wheat… Israel plans to make further trade concessions to the U.S. on food and agricultural goods, as part of efforts to persuade its closest ally to ease tariffs on exports from the Jewish state. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and raise levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, Israel’s deputy trade commissioner Yifat Alon Perel told Bloomberg. Officials hope that boosting the competitiveness of U.S. wheat against Israel’s traditional suppliers — the largest of them being Russia — will help clinch a deal to ease tariffs on goods shipped to the U.S.
Russia, Iran selling discounted oil to China… Russian and Iranian oil producers are offering deepening discounts as they compete for the same limited group of Chinese buyers after India retreated from purchases, Bloomberg said in a report. India’s imports from Russia could drop by 40% from January levels to around 600,000 barrels a day, according to a scenario from Rystad Energy. Much of the displaced cargoes are now heading east, spurring a price war with Iranian suppliers that have long been favored by China’s private refiners. Russia’s Urals grade is selling at around $12 a barrel below ICE Brent, according to traders familiar with such deals, compared with a $10 discount last month. Iranian Light is going for as much as $11 less than the global benchmark, they said, asking not to be named as they’re not authorized to speak to media, said Bloomberg. That’s widened from $8 to $9 in December. “The independent Chinese refiners, known as teapots, have historically acted as the oil market’s pressure valve, absorbing barrels shunned by others. But their capacity is finite, given they only account for around a quarter of the country’s processing capacity and are also subject to government-set import quotas,” said the report. “With China unable to fully soak up the displaced crude, unsold oil is piling up in Asian waters and Russia and Iran are running out of options. “
Keystone XL revival raised by new Montana pipeline proposal… South Bow Corp. is considering an expansion of its pipeline system that may revive a version of the canceled Keystone XL project, said a Bloomberg report. Bridger Pipeline LLC filed an application last month with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality to build and operate a 550,000-barrel-a-day line that would move Canadian crude through Montana to Wyoming. The route would originate near Keystone XL’s planned border crossing, raising the prospect that parts of the long-stalled project could be repurposed. Keystone XL was meant to be an expansion of the existing Keystone system, which crosses the U.S. border in North Dakota, and instead has become a political flashpoint since it was originally proposed in 2008. Former President Biden withdrew a key permit for the project in 2021 after portions had already been built in Canada.
Malaysian palm oil futures rebound… Malaysian palm oil futures rose to around MYR 4,070 per MT on Wednesday, snapping a three-session losing streak as strength in rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges lent support. Meanwhile, demand from India, the world’s largest buyer, is expected to recover in 2026 amid improved price competitiveness, with imports potentially reaching 800,000 MT. Crude oil prices also hovered near multi-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions, offering additional support to palm oil. Domestically, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects prices to consolidate within the MYR 4,000–4,300 per MT range in March. However, gains were limited by concerns over sluggish exports despite the ongoing Ramadan and the upcoming Eid al-Fitr festival. Cargo surveyors estimated shipments for February 1–20 fell between 8.9% and 12.6% from the prior month. Further pressure stemmed from ample global soybean supplies and rising Chinese soybean oil exports.
Cattle futures see price consolidation Tuesday… April live cattle on Tuesday fell 15 cents to $239.10. March feeder cattle rose 80 cents to $365.10. The cattle futures markets today saw the bulls try to stabilize the markets after Monday’s losses. Traders are awaiting cash cattle trade to develop this week, with notions that packers won’t be willing to pay higher money for product because their cutting margins are deep in the red. USDA at midday Tuesday reported no cash cattle trading yet this week. The agency Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $246.91, up $1.29 from the week prior.
Lean hog futures bulls back in business… April lean hog futures on Tuesday rose $2.10 to $95.80 and hit a two-week high. Bulls are right back in business following the mid-February price downdraft. Technical buying was featured Tuesday as bulls are working to re-establish a price uptrend on the daily chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 22 cents at $88.17. Today’s projected cash index price is up 18 cents at $88.35. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Tuesday was $65.24.