A 75-year low in the U.S. cattle inventory and its impact on the markets is grabbing plenty of headlines. While tight supply is undoubtedly a major driver of a historic bull run, the picture isn’t complete without a close look at the true determinant of prices for the end product: the consumer.
Consumer demand for beef has remained resilient in the face of consistently rising prices over the past 2.5 years. USDA estimates the average American will consume 59.5 lb. of the protein-packed red meat in the coming year, up three-tenths of a pound from 2025. Dietary trends promoting protein-heavy diets and a shift in sentiment around the healthfulness of animal fats have increased demand for nearly all forms of protein. USDA expects consumption of pork to increase 1.2 lb. to 50.5 lb. per year, and a nine-tenths of a pound increase to 103.8 lb. per year for chicken. While beef consumption is still forecast to rise, it is notably behind the other major protein sources.
Consumer Health
Demand for the higher-priced protein at the meat counter generally relies on the financial health of consumers remaining firm. Macroeconomic data paints a mixed picture.
On a positive note, data showed stronger-than-expected job growth in the labor market last month, with general wage growth outpacing inflation, albeit at a smaller margin than in previous months. However, data from the New York Federal Reserve shows consumer credit card debt stood at an all-time high at the end of 2025 at $1.28 trillion, and the percentage of balances 90 days or more delinquent stood at 12.7%, increasing every quarter since mid-2023. This indicates consumer spending is outstripping income at the aggregate level to the point of financial stress. Eventually, something must give: Either wages will grow fast enough to meaningfully outstrip a rising cost of living or consumers will have no choice but to cut back on spending.
Premium protein at a premium price
Robust and resilient beef demand so far may be an indication that beef, or at least protein as a whole, won’t be the first item on the chopping block if consumers do begin to cut back on spending. The value equation when selecting a protein source is different for every consumer and it can be difficult to quantify due to individual tastes and preferences. Still, it is hard to ignore the price difference between ground beef — a consumer value staple — and other popular meats such as chicken breasts and pork chops, which is now at the widest since the categories have been tracked back to 2006. The national average price for a pound of ground beef now sits at $6.75, compared to $4.15 for a pound of pork chops and $4.17 for a pound of chicken breast. At these previously unseen price differentials, consumers are likely to reevaluate whether their preference for beef is worth the extra cost. One of the first tests of future demand will come this grilling season. Pricier cuts saw a marked drop in the volume of purchases at the end of 2025 as ground beef became more popular, although that was likely due, to some degree, to seasonal patterns. If demand for more premium cuts fails to see its usual seasonal strength, that may be one warning sign consumer substitution is taking hold.
Price Relief on the Horizon?
Beef prices aren’t likely to ease any time soon due to a combination of factors. Negative packer margins have resulted in multiple slaughter and beef processing facilities closing, which will in turn further restrict the supply of beef in the short-term. Packers are able to sustain negative margins for a period of time, but the prolonged inability of boxed beef prices to follow upward to the same degree seen in cattle has caused the sector to reevaluate production decisions.
USDA data confirms that slaughter is down to start the new year, as slightly higher carcass weights fail to offset the lower marketings compared to 2025 thus far. The Trump administration has also taken actions that aim to ease beef prices by increasing total imports as well as tariff-rate-quotas, which allow tariff-free imports under a certain total. Trade data indicated that beef imports in 2025 made totaled 2.42 million metric tons, or about 18% of the total beef consumed in the country. Recent headlines surrounding increased imports from Argentina to 100,000 MT would increase total imports by less than one-tenth of a percent. These imports are predominantly used to help supplement select
