Good morning!
Grain futures mixed-firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was up 1 cent. March soybeans were 12 3/4 cents higher. March SRW and HRW wheat futures were up 1 3/4 to 1 1/2 cents. We reported early yesterday that the grain markets needed a fresh bullish spark. President Trump responded by announcing in a Truth Social post that China is considering buying another 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans “this season” after recently completing the 12 million MT purchases of U.S. beans the administration said China had agreed to buy last October. Soybeans have quickly taken the lead in trying to resuscitate the grain futures markets. The soybean market’s mid-range close Wednesday that was well down from the daily high was a bit worrisome for the bulls. However, the solid overnight gains now suggest more price upside is possible in soybeans in the near term. On tap today for the grains is the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, with crude oil lower and trading around $64.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.27 percent.
Milder weather in Midwest, Plains states; cold, windy in Northeast… The National Weather Service today reported a replenishment of arctic air will envelop the eastern U.S. with below-freezing temperatures reaching as far south as the Florida panhandle by Friday morning before moderating this weekend. Much of the rest of the country will remain dry with above-normal temperatures for the next couple of days from the western U.S. to the Great Plains, with a significant warm- up expanding east across the northern Plains toward the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a pair of frontal systems will bring periods of light to locally moderate snow for the Great Lakes today before an intense surge of arctic air arrives from Canada on Friday and into the weekend. The Great Lakes states will see snow squalls followed by rapidly falling temperatures together with blustery to possibly damaging winds from the northwest. These winds will spread eastward, potentially gusting over 50 mph for the entire Northeast,increasing the potential of tree damage and power outages. In addition, wind chills with values in the -30s will pose a life-threatening risk of hypothermia and frostbite to exposed skin.
Gold, silver markets turn wobbly again… Gold and silver futures markets were sharply lower overnight as the two precious metals have become unstable again after posting solid recoveries earlier this week. Spot silver plunged as much as 17% overnight, having flickered briefly above $90 an ounce in early Asian trading, Bloomberg reported. After a record-breaking rally that appeared to run too far, too fast, the metal has retreated by more than a third from an all-time high hit on Jan. 29. The sudden and sharp decline in precious metals also weighed on sentiment in base metals markets, with copper falling more than 1% to slip below $13,000 a ton. Meanwhile, spot gold dropped as much as 3.5% in choppy trading. The recent steep downdrafts in gold and silver prices put some downside pressure on many raw commodity futures markets, including the grains, as well as denting risk appetite across the general marketplace.
U.S. dollar index hits two-week high… The U.S. dollar index overnight notched a two-week high and has made a strong recovery after hitting a four-year low in late January. The greenback has appreciated amid mostly upbeat U.S. economic data releases and following the announcement from President Trump that he has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh has in the past leaned hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. Meantime, the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged today, as policymakers weigh the impact of a stronger Euro currency. The ECB has held its monetary policy steady since last June. The Bank of England also holds its regular monetary policy meeting today and is also expected to keep rates steady.
Crude oil prices back off as U.S.-Iran talks to proceed… Crude oil futures prices fell overnight for the first time in three days after Iran confirmed it will hold negotiations with the U.S., easing the immediate risk of military strikes against the OPEC producer. Brent dropped toward $68 a barrel, after adding 4.8% over the previous two sessions, while West Texas Intermediate was near $64 a barrel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed in a social media post that the negotiations will be held in Oman on Friday, clarifying the location of the encounter, Bloomberg said. “Differing positions over the parameters of U.S.-Iran negotiations mean it remains unclear whether the two sides can realistically bridge major differences at a time of heightened tensions in the region, which supplies about a third of the world’s crude. That has reinserted a risk premium into oil prices, which have rebounded this year after slumping in the second half of 2025 on signs of a growing global glut,” said the report.
Malaysian palm oil futures weaker… Malaysian palm oil futures slipped below MYR 4,215 per MT on Thursday, reversing modest gains from the prior session, as losses in the Dalian palm oil contract and weaker rival oils in Chicago weighed on sentiment. Trading remained cautious ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly data, due on February 10. Still, the downside was partly capped by a softer ringgit. On the export front, cargo surveyors reported that January palm oil shipments rose by 14.9%–17.9% mom. Demand from key buyer India strengthened notably, with imports jumping 51% to a four-month high in January, driven by palm oil’s steep discount to soyoil that encouraged refiners to increase purchases. Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, recorded a 102.23% surge in exports from December, bringing total 2025 shipments up 9.1% year-on-year. In addition, Reuters forecast Malaysia’s palm oil inventories likely ended a 10-month rise in January, as robust exports coincided with a seasonal slowdown in production.
Cattle futures markets rally on bullish charts, fundamentals… April live cattle on Wednesday rose 17 1/2 cents to $241.80 and hit a 3.5-month high. March feeder cattle gained $2.15 to $370.075, also hitting a 3.5-month-high. The cattle futures markets saw more mild to moderate chart-based buying from the speculators amid bullish technicals and solid cash market fundamentals. USDA at midday Wednesday reported no significant cash cattle trading yet this week. We look for at least steady cash cattle trade to develop today or Friday. Last week’s average cash cattle trade was $239.44, up $4.74 from the week prior’s average cash trade at $234.70.
Lean hog futures prices in solid uptrend, but bulls may be exhausted… April lean hog futures on Wednesday rose 30 cents to $98.45, nearer the session low and hit a contract high early on. Hogs saw some profit-taking pressure after hitting a new contract high. Wednesday’s low-range daily close does hint the hog market bulls may now be near-term exhausted after this week’s good gains. April futures’ big premium to the cash market suggests futures traders believe there is more upside for the cash hog market in the coming weeks. The latest CME lean hog index is up 12 cents at $85.83. Today’s projected cash index price is up 23 cents at $86.06. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $62.81.