The U.S. cotton industry is bracing for another year of contraction as a “perfect storm” of high production costs, sluggish global demand, and stiff competition from alternative crops pushes producers to rethink their acreage.
According to the National Cotton Council’s (NCC) 45th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey, U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.0 million cotton acres this spring, a 3.2% decline from 2025. While a 3% dip might seem modest in isolation, it follows a massive 17% reduction in acreage last year, signaling a sustained and sobering period of tough economic times for the industry.
And considering cotton producers lost, on average, more than $300 per acre last year, another year of declining acreage comes as little surprise to those in the industry, as some fear if the economist situation doesn’t change for cotton, more producers could exit farming in 2026.
The Economic Squeeze: Why the Shift?
In a recent interview on AgriTalk with host Chip Flory, NCC President and CEO Dr. Gary Adams highlighted the mounting pressure on farm balance sheets.
“Times are tough,” Adams says. “Prices have been declining and costs of production have continued to stay at high levels. It really is starting to mount up on producers in terms of the balance sheet for their farming operations.”
The survey reflects a strategic shift across the Cotton Belt. With cotton prices struggling to compete with the current markets for corn and soybeans, many growers are opting for crops with lower overhead.
“In a lot of cases, they’re looking at soybeans as an alternative, in part because of its lower cost of production than what you see in cotton,” Adams notes. This “flight to safety” is a direct response to the high-risk, high-reward nature of cotton in an era of volatile input prices.
Farmers Are Walking Away From Cotton
For Charles Williams, a farmer in Crawfordsville, Ark., he’s seen what multiple years of losses can do to an industry. Cotton is a cornerstone crop in his area, with the infrastructure reliant upon that single crop. But growing cotton also comes with specialized, expensive equipment that’s become almost too costly to own, especially with today’s cotton prices.
“We’ll continue to plant some cotton, at least as much as we did last year,” he says. “Our production last year is half of what it historically is, so we’ll be 50% to 60%, maybe 65% of what we historically plant with cotton,” he says.
Because these farmers have cotton equipment to pay for, equipment that can only do one thing, which is pick cotton, walking away isn’t an easy choice. Williams also is an owner of a gin. So, he says he’s only planting enough cotton to justify the equipment and the gin, but not any more than that. Why? He simply can’t afford to.
Inside the Survey: A Coast-to-Coast Breakdown of 2026 Intentions
The NCC’s annual survey, a massive data-collection effort mailed to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt in January, provides a granular look at how farmers are shifting their strategies. And when you break it down by region, it shows where the most severe economic pressures could be.
Mid-South: The Sharpest Decline
The Mid-South is bracing for the most dramatic shift, with total intentions down 20.6% to 1.2 million acres.
- Arkansas & Missouri: These states are seeing the steepest cuts, with Arkansas down 30.3% and Missouri down 25.0%.
- The Outlier: Louisiana stands against the trend, with growers expecting to plant 17.1% more cotton.
Southeast: A Broad Pullback
Respondents in the Southeast indicated a 4.9% decline in total acreage, falling to 1.6 million acres, with more of a shift toward corn and soybeans.
- Georgia: Growers expect to reduce acreage by 3.6% to 805,000 acres—a historic low. This marks only the fourth time in 30 years that Georgia has dipped below the 1.1-million-acre threshold.
- Significant Drops: Virginia leads the decline at 17.9%, followed by South Carolina (10.5%) and North Carolina (6.0%).
Southwest: A Patchwork of Growth
Bucking the national trend, Southwest growers intend to plant 1.6% more cotton.
- Kansas & Oklahoma: Kansas is looking at a 9.6% increase at the expense of wheat and soybeans, while Oklahoma is charging ahead with a 15.7% increase.
- Texas: The nation’s largest producer remains relatively flat with a 0.4% increase. However, internal shifts are happening: West Texas is reporting a slight uptick, while the Blacklands region intends to pivot toward sorghum.
The West: Upland Down, ELS Up
In the West, the story is a tale of two cottons. While Upland cotton acreage is expected to decline by 7.2%, with New Mexico seeing a sharp 17.6% drop. Extra Long Staple (ELS) cotton is seeing a resurgence.
Looking Ahead: A New Safety Net With Long-Term Gains vs. Short-Term Pain
Despite the projected acreage drop, Adams points to several reasons for long-term optimism rooted in the latest Farm Bill provisions. The industry is just beginning to see the “heavy lifting” done by recent legislative wins, though the timing of the relief remains a challenge for growers facing immediate bills.
Key improvements to the safety net, according to Adams, include:
- Reference Price Hikes: A 14% increase in reference prices for seed cotton under Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs.
- Enhanced Insurance: Significant improvements to the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO), including an increase in the premium subsidy to 80%.
- Program Synergy: For the first time, growers can utilize these area-wide insurance products alongside PLC enrollment, providing a multi-layered defense against market drops.
“The combination of those two programs for 2026 and beyond will give growers better risk management, better price support, and a better safety net under them,” Adams explains.
However, there is a catch: the lag in payment distribution. Growers must navigate the 2026 planting season and its associated expenses before the support from the 2025 crop arrives this October.
Reclaiming the Market: “Plant, Not Plastic”
To combat the acreage slide and sagging prices, the NCC is aggressively pursuing new legislative and promotional avenues to bolster domestic and global demand.
The first is the “Buy American Cotton Act,” a proposal to offer tax credits to brands and retailers that document the use of U.S.-grown cotton.
“We purchase roughly 20 million bale equivalents of cotton textile products... but only about 4 million bales of that is actually U.S. cotton,” Adams says. The act aims to incentivize “dirt to shirt” production within the U.S., potentially reshoring a textile industry that has largely moved overseas.
The industry is also leaning into the sustainability movement with its “Plant, Not Plastic” campaign. This initiative targets the growing consumer concern over microplastics found in synthetic fibers like polyester.
“Cotton is a healthy alternative,” Adams says. He noted that the industry’s message is gaining traction at the highest levels, even reaching the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) commission, which recently highlighted the need for more study on the health impacts of synthetic microfibers.
Looking Ahead: The Path to Recovery for Cotton
While the 2026 outlook remains cautious, the industry is betting on a combination of legislative support and consumer education to turn the tide. By focusing on “nearshoring” opportunities in the Western Hemisphere and emphasizing cotton’s natural advantages over synthetics, the NCC hopes to create a more resilient market for the years to come.
The goal is to build demand at hone while changing behavior of brands and retailers. If they start using U.S. cotton instead of polyester or cotton from another country, there is hope for the future of cotton demand.