GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Big swings in crude oil futures are dictating trade in the grain and soy complex. That being said, even during big overnight losses, corn, soybeans and wheat each held key technical support, maintaining the uptrends in place in each market. Prices rebounded from early overnight losses and went into the break near session highs. Crude oil futures have been volatile overnight amid uncertainty regarding oil flows through and out of the Middle East. The U.S. dollar index is down on profit-taking this morning, down around 400 points.
Latest on the war in Iran:
--Trump said he predicted the war would end “very soon,” but not this week
--He said some oil-related sanctions would be waived, escorts provided in Hormuz
--Trump says U.S. will hit Iran “20 times harder” if it attacks ships in Persian Gulf
--Gulf countries deepen oil-output cuts, with Hormuz still near-shut
--Nymex and Brent crude oil prices retreat sharply from Monday’s highs, now below $90
--Turkey said NATO will deploy a Patriot system to its Eastern region to shore up defenses
--Missiles were launched from Iran toward Israel and sirens sounded; no known casualties
--Saudi Arabia has cut oil output by 2M-2.5M B/D; UAE by about 0.5M-0.8M B/D
--Kuwait cuts oil output by about 0.5M B/D; Iraq has cut output by about 2.9M B/D
President Trump on Monday said the U.S. and Israel were making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon,” curtailing an oil-price surge. Trump said he didn’t believe the fighting would be over this week, but insisted the operation was ahead of schedule. The U.S. Navy will escort tankers out of the Middle East to maintain a steady oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, he added. Today, Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco said it would be able to ramp up a pipeline that can take crude to the kingdom’s west coast — thus bypassing Hormuz — to full capacity in a few days, Bloomberg reported.
The monthly WASDE report, due at 11:00 a.m. CDT, isn’t expected to post any significant shifts in U.S. corn, soybean or wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg on average look for U.S. corn, wheat and soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to move by 5 million bushels or less. It will be worth watching to see if USDA tweaks its forecast for U.S. soybean exports after President Trump in early February said China was considering buying an additional 8 million metric tons of the crop after completing an earlier pledge to purchases 12 million MT. USDA in its February WASDE, acknowledged that China was “reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans,” but played down the impact purchases would have on the balance sheet.
CORN: May corn futures rebounded from early overnight losses. Support stands at $4.49 1/2 then $4.45 on a push lower. Resistance stands at $4.60 on continued strength.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans held 10-day moving average support at $11.79 1/2 overnight. Prices rebounded and gains stalled at psychological $12.00 resistance. Additional resistance would be found at $12.19 1/2 on persistent strength.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw followthrough selling early in the overnight session but have since rebounded. Bulls held support at $5.88 1/4, the 10-day moving average. That remains key support. Resistance stands at $6.10 then $6.25 on another push higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure.Last week’s cash cattle average fell $2.77 from the prior week to $239.94. Smaller of a drop than expected given early selling last week, though that marks two weeks of consecutive declines. Wholesale beef meanwhile continues to climb higher as choice cutout rose another $4.07 to $391.29.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone. Selling pressure was limited by 40-day moving average support at $94.25 Monday, which is expected to underpin futures again today. The CME lean hog index is up another 13 cents to $90.87 as of March 6, continuing the seasonal uptrend. Pork cutout surged above the $100 mark Monday, rising $3.05 to $101.32. Gains were present among all cuts with loins and ribs leading the way higher.